供应链运营业务受宏观形势影响有所收缩，但Q3 业绩显著修复。24 年1-9 月供应链运营业务实现营收4146.7 亿元，同比减少22.2%；归母净利润22.4 亿元，同比减少10.2%，主要由于受到宏观经济形势、大宗商品价格波动及传统汽车行业疲软影响，公司部分大宗商品集采分销业务和汽车销售业务利润下降。其中，Q1、Q2、Q3 供应链业务归母净利润分别为7.7、6.5、8.2 亿元，同比分别为-8.8%、-21.5%、-0.3%，Q3 业绩有所修复，环比增加26.9%。Event: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on October 30, 2024.
After excluding the restructuring proceeds of the previous year, the decline in Q3 results narrowed month-on-month. The company achieved operating income of 502.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; net profit to mother was 2.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.4%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.3% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 183.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%; net profit to mother was 0.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.8%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.5%. The sharp decline in profit was mainly affected by Macalline's restructuring revenue of 9.491 billion yuan in the same period last year. After excluding restructuring proceeds, the company's net profit to mother decreased 29.8% year on year from January to September 2024; Q3 net profit to mother decreased 14.6% year on year, and the decline narrowed compared to Q2.
Revenue from the real estate business increased, and net profit to mother declined year-on-year, dragged down by MediaTek. From January to September 2024, the real estate business revenue was 81.37 billion yuan, up 26% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% year on year. Among them, C&D Real Estate contributed 0.66 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1 billion yuan year on year, and MediaTek contributed -0.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.29 billion yuan year on year. The main reason for the decline in performance was: (1) the gross margin of the real estate business fell 1.2 pct to 12.4% year on year from January to September 2024; (2) C&D Real Estate and MediaTek Group calculated inventory price reduction preparations of 6.7 billion yuan and 660 million yuan respectively. According to Kerui data, in the first three quarters of 2024, C&D Real Estate and MediaTek Group achieved full-caliber sales of 85.3 billion yuan and 19.9 billion yuan respectively, down 35.7% and 57.4% from the previous year.
Supply chain operations contracted due to the macroeconomic situation, but Q3 results recovered significantly. From January to September '24, the supply chain operation business achieved revenue of 414.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%; net profit to mother was 2.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year. Mainly due to the macroeconomic situation, commodity price fluctuations, and weakness in the traditional automobile industry, profits from some of the company's commodity collection and distribution business and automobile sales business declined. Among them, net profit from the Q1, Q2, and Q3 supply chain business was 0.77, 0.65, and 0.82 billion yuan respectively, which was -8.8%, -21.5%, and -0.3% year-on-year respectively. Q3 results were repaired, increasing 26.9% from month to month.
The home furnishing shopping business lost performance due to a decline in occupancy rates. From January to September 2024, the company's home furnishing shopping business achieved operating income of 6.11 billion yuan and net profit of -0.57 billion yuan to mother. Losses were mainly due to declining occupancy rates, increased concessions granted by Macalline to merchants to stabilize businesses, and increased losses due to changes in fair value of investment real estate.
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy” rating. The company's real estate business has a high-quality land storage layout, and sales and land acquisition remained resilient during the downturn of the industry; the supply chain sector maintained its existing business advantages while accelerating its international layout, and its market share continued to increase. However, considering that the current real estate market has not stabilized, the supply chain is still under pressure due to the macroeconomic situation, and the drag of Macalline, we expect the company's revenue in 2024/2025/2026 to be 771.9/790.2/791.2 billion yuan, respectively; the net profit to mother will be 3.4/4/4.2 billion yuan; the corresponding EPS will be 1.15/1.36/1.44 yuan; and the corresponding PE will be 8.3/7/6.7 times.
Risk warning: Relaxation of real estate policies falls short of expectations, improvement in gross margin of development business falls short of expectations, and risk of commodity price fluctuations.