维持“谨慎增持”评级。2024Q1-Q3营收30.88亿元，同比下降1.72%，归母净利润6.06 万元，同比下降27.82%，Q3 单季度营收9.45 亿元，同比增长12.79%，归母净利润2.01 亿元，同比下降6.54%，主要受肝素原料药价格下降及汇兑影响，业绩整体符合预期。考虑肝素原料药价格端压力及汇兑损失影响，下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测为0.52/0.69/0.92 元（原0.56/0.74/0.96 元），参考可比公司估值，给予2025 年PE24X，上调目标价至16.56 元（原13.44 元），维持“谨慎增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Profitability improved month-on-month, increasing the transformation of high-end formulations and biopharmaceuticals, and optimistic about long-term growth space.
Key points of investment:
Maintain a “prudent increase” rating. 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 3.088 billion yuan, down 1.72% year on year, net profit to mother was 0.0606 million yuan, down 27.82% year on year, Q3 single quarter revenue was 0.945 billion yuan, up 12.79% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.201 billion yuan, down 6.54% year on year, mainly affected by falling prices of heparin APIs and exchange. Overall performance was in line with expectations. Considering the impact of pressure on the price side of heparin APIs and exchange losses, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.52/0.69/0.92 yuan (original 0.56/0.74/0.96 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE24X was given, and the target price was raised to 16.56 yuan (originally 13.44 yuan), maintaining the “cautious increase” rating.
Expense rates have decreased and profitability has improved. The 2024Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 41.41%, down 7.99 pcts year on year. The main reason is that heparin APIs were in a high price base during the same period in 2023. The gross profit margin in Q3 was 44.07%, down 0.32 pct year on year, and 2.30 pct month on month. The 2024Q1-Q3 sales expense ratio was 6.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.56pct, mainly due to a reduction in preparation collection sales and promotion expenses; the management expense ratio was 3.93%, an increase of 0.58pct; and the R&D expense ratio was 7.00%, up 0.23pct year-on-year. The net interest rate for 2024Q1-Q3 was 19.62%, down 7.09pct year on year. The net interest rate for Q3 was 21.24%, up 1.23pct month-on-month, and profitability improved month-on-month.
Increase strategic transformation of biopharmaceutical analogues and high-end formulations. 2024H1, the company has obtained registration approvals for various drugs such as reganosene injections, palonosetron hydrochloride injections, dacarbazine for injection, etibatide injections, and voriconazole for injection. As of 2023, it has 97 overseas drug registration approvals and 28 Chinese drug registration approvals, ranking first among similar domestic companies. High-end platform construction such as code-added peptides and complex formulation technology (controlled release, liposomes, injectable pen preparations). Advance the development of 4 biosimilar projects in 2023. On the epitaxial side, in 2022, they cooperated to introduce Hainan double albumin purple to enter the US high-end market; in 2023, they cooperated with Tonghua Dongbao to develop three types of insulin: mendong, glycine, and laipong; in 2024, they cooperated to introduce the COHERUS biosimilar adalimumab. Self-development+cooperation promotes the transformation of high-end complex formulations and biopharmaceuticals, and is optimistic about long-term growth space.
Catalysts: Product development and registration progress is accelerating, and product terminal demand exceeds expectations Risk warning: risk of fluctuating API prices; risk of drug approval and promotion falling short of expectations
