业绩略低于预 期，维持“增持”评级。考虑到金价持续上行，克重黄金品类终端动销承压、加盟商拿货意愿疲弱，且公司女包业务复苏节奏较慢，下调2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.44/0.51/0.57 元（原值0.46/0.53/0.60 元），参考可比公司估值，给予2024 年13x PE，下调目标价至5.72 元（原值5.98 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
2024Q3's performance is in line with expectations. The company focuses on branded products, and the overall performance is better than the general market in the jewelry industry; channel incentives and organizational structure are gradually smoothed out, and the room for growth is worth looking forward to.
Key points of investment:
The performance was slightly lower than expected, maintaining the “Overweight” rating. Considering that the price of gold continues to rise, sales pressure on major gold terminals, and the slow recovery pace of the company's women's bag business, the 2024-2026 EPS was reduced to 0.44/0.51/0.57 yuan (original value 0.46/0.53/0.60 yuan), respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2024 13x PE was given, and the target price was lowered to 5.72 yuan (original value of 5.98 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Performance summary: The company achieved revenue of 4.859 billion yuan/yoy +8.01% in the first three quarters of 2024, net profit of 0.316 billion yuan/yoy +0.95%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.31 billion yuan/yoy +0.77%. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.428 billion yuan/yoy -4.36% in a single quarter, net profit of 0.086 billion yuan/yoy -17.21%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.085 billion yuan/yoy -17.71%. The performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to continued high gold prices and weak sales in the gold category; the company focused on branded superior products, and the overall performance was better than the general market performance of the jewelry industry.
The share of franchises led to a decline in gross margin, and cost ratio optimization, and net interest rate declined steadily and slightly. The 2024Q3 company's gross profit margin was 24.20% /-2.25pct, net profit margin of 5.95% /-0.95pct, period expense ratio 15.91% /-0.67pct, and sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratios changed year-on-year by -0.30pct/-0.21pct/-0.04pct/-0.12pct to 12.25%/2.19%/1.03%/0.44%, respectively.
Gold prices continue to rise. Waiting for terminal sales to pick up, we can expect room to expand the store's growth. Gold prices continued to rise during the season, and there is still some pressure on terminal weight gold sales; as consumer confidence gradually picks up, the second half of the year and the traditional peak season of the Spring Festival progresses, we will wait for terminal sales and franchisees' stock replenishment to pick up marginally. The company's net increase in the number of stores in the 2024Q3 single quarter was over 40. The potential of jewelry brands was rising, and Tuodian maintained a steady net growth trend; with the gradual streamlining of channel incentives and organizational structure, the growth space for joining Tuodian is worth looking forward to.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, and the pace of joining stores falls short of expectations.
