盈利预测： 基于行业竞争格局影响， 我们将营收预测由24-26 年分别为2178.9/2770.3/2991.9 亿元调整为1815.6/2308.4/2770.0 亿元，同比增速依次为20%、27%、20%，我们将归母净利润预测由24-26 年分别为84.1/105.7/126.6 亿元调整为55.5/102.0/122.9 亿元，同比增速依次为-51%、84%、21%，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company released its three-quarter report, with 24Q3 revenue of 34.2 billion yuan, -19.9%/-13.76% YoY, net profit of 0.748 billion yuan to mother, -66.4%/-55.30% YoY.
Sales volume and profit and loss of joint ventures affect current results in stages. The company released its three-quarter report, with 24Q3 revenue of 34.2 billion yuan, -19.9%/-13.76%, net profit to mother of 0.748 billion yuan, -66.4%/-55.30% year-on-month, and gross margin of 15.7%. It is expected to be mainly affected by the continued increase in the penetration rate of new energy terminals, and the phased pressure on the company's domestic fuel truck sales will affect profit levels.
New energy products are gradually increasing, showing popularity and strong trends on the right side of the product cycle. The company continued to promote the launch of new new energy products in Q3. The overall new product launch data showed impressive results. Among them, Deep Blue S07 had 4.8w orders in March, orders over 1.6w before S05 went on sale, Avita 07 was set to 2.5w in 17 days, and Dark Blue's monthly orders exceeded 3w in October. We expect that with the gradual increase in existing new products and the continuous launch of subsequent new product cycles, the company's NEV sales will continue to rise, which will drive current brands such as Deep Blue, Avita, and Qiyuan to continue to reverse losses and raise the company's overall profit level.
Profit forecast: Based on the impact of industry competition, we adjusted our revenue forecast from 217.89/277.03/299.19 billion yuan to 181.56/230.84/277 billion yuan in 24-26, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 27%, and 20% in that order. We adjusted our net profit forecast to mother from 8.41/10.57/12.66 billion yuan in 24-26 to 5.55/10.2/12.29 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rate was -51%, 84%, and 21% in that order, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry growth is slowing down due to the slowdown in the penetration rate of new energy sources, increased industry competition due to increased supply of new models, risk that market acceptance of new models will fall short of expectations, and public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.
