硬质合金制品收入增长较快，数控刀具收入略有增长。1）数据刀具：实现营业收入为4.89 亿元，同比增长3.18%；销量6,585 万片，均价7.43 元，数控刀具产品综合毛利率34.2%，其中自产数控刀片毛利率为42%。2）硬质合金制品：实现营业收入3.88 亿元，同比增长17.92%，销售1,197 吨，均价32.4 万元/吨，硬质合金制品的综合毛利率为16.2%。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 0.895 billion yuan, an increase of 11.22% year on year; realized net profit of 0.09 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 43.70%. The Q3 company achieved operating income of 0.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.08% and a month-on-month increase of 0.08%; net profit to mother was 0.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.85%.
Commentary:
The revenue of tungsten carbide products is growing rapidly, and the revenue of CNC tools has increased slightly. 1) Data tools: Achieved operating income of 0.489 billion yuan, an increase of 3.18% over the previous year; sales volume of 65.85 million pieces, average price of 7.43 yuan, and a comprehensive gross profit margin of CNC tool products of 34.2%, of which the gross margin for self-produced CNC blades was 42%. 2) Hard alloy products: Achieved operating income of 0.388 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.92%, sales of 1,197 tons, average price of 0.324 million yuan/ton, and the comprehensive gross margin of hard alloy products was 16.2%.
Volume and price: The manufacturing boom can be expected to recover, and the volume and price of tools is expected to rise sharply. As an important consumable in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing boom has a great impact on tool demand; with strong national policies, the manufacturing boom can be expected to recover. Currently, there is a large difference in tool prices at home and abroad. Domestic tool products are being iteratively upgraded, and the variety of products is becoming more and more diverse. Prices of middle and high-end tools are showing an upward trend, and domestic substitution is still an important trend.
Complete package: Increase the terminal layout and broaden the application scenarios of the overall solution. Promoting overall solutions is an important way for domestic tools to reach the high-end. On the one hand, the company actively broadens the overall solution application scenarios and launched tool processing solutions for automobile manufacturing parts, aerospace (chassis, blades, etc.), rail transit (turnouts, axles, wheels, etc.), wind power (flanges, planetary wheels, etc.), and mobile phone frames; on the other hand, the company actively enriches the product system and expands the product needs of existing customers.
Exports: Domestic knives are “good-quality and inexpensive”, and overseas exports have increased significantly. Tools are global cutting consumables and have great potential in overseas markets. The market size is more than 5-6 times that of domestic tools, and the global share of domestic tools will increase rapidly. The company actively promoted overseas business and achieved overseas sales revenue of 0.166 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 44.2% over the previous year. With the advantage of “good quality and low price”, the company's overseas business has achieved rapid growth. There have been new breakthroughs in adding overseas brand agents, increasing the number of overseas customers, and sales at overseas locations in Europe and the US. Future overseas business growth can be expected.
Investment advice: Considering the manufacturing boom and raw material price increases in the first three quarters of 2024, we lowered the company's performance expectations. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.195/1.513/1.853 billion yuan (previous value 1.284/1.554/1.899 billion yuan), and net profit to mother will be 1.21/2.00/2.75 (previous value 0.166/0.258/0.361 billion yuan), respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.76, 1.26, 1.73 yuan. Referring to the valuation level of comparable companies, based on factors such as the company's leading domestic tool company, positive progress in domestic and overseas business and overall solution models, the gradual release of production capacity in fixed increase projects, and the recovery in manufacturing prosperity, the target price was adjusted to 25.2 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in the manufacturing industry falls short of expectations; the progress of production expansion falls short of expectations; the expansion of new industries and overseas markets falls short of expectations; the risk of raw material price increases.
