盈利预测和投资建议：公司为国内基建设计领域央企龙头，技术优势突出，为全国型布局公司，旗下6 家设计院各具特色，实控人中交集团有望充分赋能，未来资产注入预期强劲，有望持续增强综合竞争实力，提升国内基建市场份额。公司拓展交通、市政行业外的多元业务，积极布局新兴行业，低空经济、智慧交通、水运、环保等创造未来新增量。公司推进海外优先战略，海外发展目标明确路径清晰，有望成长为国内出海的国际型设计咨询龙头。随化债政策推进，公司项目回款有望改善，业绩持续修复可期。我们看好公司资源、技术、市场、股东、战略等多重优势下的持续成长，预计公司2024-2026 年分别实现营业收入133.94 亿元、137.87 亿元和144.40 亿元，同比-0.87%、2.93%和4.74%；分别实现归母净利润18.95 亿元、20.61 亿元和22.60 亿元，同比增长7.3%、8.8%和9.7%，PE 分别为11.6 倍、10.7 倍和9.7倍。给予公司“买入-A”评级，2025 年PE 为13 倍，对应12 个月目标价为11.7 元。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.727 billion yuan (yoy -22.99%), achieving net profit of 0.98 billion yuan (yoy +2.76%); 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.778 billion yuan (yoy -44.89%), and achieved net profit of 0.353 billion yuan (yoy -27.69%).
Revenue declined due to business restructuring, and quarterly results grew steadily. With 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 6.727 billion yuan, or -22.99%, of which 2024Q1, Q2, and Q3 revenue were -22.08%, +1.69%, and -44.89%, respectively. After the company was restructured and listed, the business structure was adjusted and the construction business was divested, and quarterly revenue declined year-on-year since 2024Q1. In the first three quarters, the company achieved net profit of 0.98 billion yuan, or +2.76% year-on-year. Among them, net profit attributable to mother for 2024Q1, Q2, and Q3 was +42.38%, 27.18%, and -27.69%, respectively. The Q3 performance growth rate declined mainly due to a sharp decrease in revenue, but the decline in performance was far lower than the decline in revenue and increased profitability. The company's net profit withheld from non-return to mother in the first three quarters was -9.20% year-on-year, and income from disposal of non-current assets led to a significant increase in non-financial profit.
The gross margin/net margin increased significantly year over year, and investment returns surged in Q3. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.56%, +3.32pct year-on-year, mainly due to the company's contraction of low-margin construction operations. Since 2024Q1, the company's quarterly gross margin has continued to increase. The gross margins of 2024Q1, H1, and Q1-Q3 were 15.99%, 28.05%, and 28.56%, respectively. The company's cost rate for the period was 10.48%, +0.42pct year on year, total expenses for the period -19.77% year on year, and the management expense ratio and R&D expense ratio were +0.22pct and +0.33pct, respectively. The company's net interest rate during the period was 14.81%, +3.77pct,2024q1, Q2, and Q3 quarterly net interest rates were 4.56%, 19.26%, and 20.12%, respectively. The company's net interest rate for single Q3 increased markedly year-on-year and month-on-month, mainly due to a significant year-on-year increase in investment income. The investment income for 24Q3 and 23Q3 was 0.092 billion yuan and -0.005 billion yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company is a leading central enterprise in the field of infrastructure design in China, with outstanding technical advantages. It is a national layout company with 6 unique design institutes. The actual controller CCCC Group is expected to be fully empowered, and future asset injection expectations are strong. It is expected that it will continue to enhance its comprehensive competitive strength and increase the domestic infrastructure market share. The company expands diversified businesses outside the transportation and municipal industries, actively lays out emerging industries, and creates future growth in low-altitude economy, smart transportation, water transportation, environmental protection, etc. The company promotes overseas priority strategies, has clear overseas development goals and a clear path, and is expected to grow into a leading international design consulting company at home. As the debt conversion policy progresses, the company's project repayments are expected to improve, and performance can be expected to continue to recover. We are optimistic about the company's continued growth under multiple advantages such as resources, technology, market, shareholders, and strategy. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 13.394 billion yuan, 13.787 billion yuan and 14.44 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, -0.87%, 2.93% and 4.74% year-on-year; achieve net profit to mother of 1.895 billion yuan, 2.061 billion yuan and 2.60 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 8.8% and 9.7%, PE respectively 11.6x, 10.7x, and 9.7x. The company was given a “buy-A” rating. PE was 13 times higher in 2025, and the corresponding 12-month target price was 11.7 yuan.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of deterioration of local finance, repayment risk, risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations, risk of new business expansion falling short of expectations, risk of asset injection falling short of expectations, risk of overseas expansion falling short of expectations.
