Just one day left until the United States presidential election on November 5th. In just the past week, states across the USA have already spent nearly $1 billion on political advertising. Particularly in the 7 key swing states this year, campaign leaflets and slogans are seen everywhere, and local people often receive text messages encouraging them to vote. "The final outcome of the U.S. election often depends on a few truly competitive swing states." Reuters reported that both the Democratic and Republican parties will invest the most funds and resources in these locations. So why are these states so important? How do they 'swing' between the two parties? What are the most important issues for the people in these places, and how are these issues connected to the economic, social, and cultural backgrounds of the states?

Winning the most popular votes does not necessarily make you the winner.

"In the American electoral system, the candidate who gets the most popular votes is not necessarily the winner." The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) explained that in the U.S., the 'Electoral College' system means that the Republican presidential candidate Trump and the Democratic presidential candidate Harris are not in a 'national competition,' but a 'state-by-state competition': in most states in the USA, the candidate with the most votes will take all the electoral votes of that state. With a total of 538 electoral votes, winning over 270 is enough to take the White House. Depending on the population size of each state, the corresponding number of electoral votes also varies.

According to the Australian "The Conversation" website, in the U.S. electoral system, a small portion of voters in a few states can change the result: in 2020, Biden won over Trump by 7 million votes nationally, but what truly led to his victory in the Electoral College was his 450,000 vote lead over Trump in swing states.

Due to historical developments, population structure, etc., most states in the USA have fixed party affiliations, and swing states, also known as 'battlefield states' or 'purple states,' are where the support is uncertain. The number and composition of swing states in each election are not consistent. This year, the main swing states in the USA are 7 states, which collectively have 93 electoral votes: the northern 'blue wall states' - Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and the southern 'Sun Belt' - Georgia (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Nevada (6 votes).

It is worth noting that November 5th is not only the day of the presidential election, but also when both houses of the U.S. Congress face reelection. 34 out of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs, while all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. The party that secures 218 seats in the House becomes the majority party and can control the House. Currently, the Senate is controlled by the Democratic Party, and the House of Representatives is controlled by the Republican Party, but the difference in seats between the two parties is very close. The Associated Press reports that the battle for control of Congress is still at a standstill.

Pennsylvania: "The Most Important Swing State"

Pennsylvania is often considered the most important swing state. According to The Washington Post, this is because it has as many as 19 electoral votes, and the winner may only need to win two more swing states to achieve the final victory.

Pennsylvania, once one of the 'Blue Wall States', has gradually turned into a 'Purple State' in recent years. In 2016, Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since 1988. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points.

"In many issues and demographics, Pennsylvania is like a microcosm of the entire United States." The US political website GZeroMedia said that Pennsylvania's economy is transitioning from manufacturing to emerging industries; the population is predominantly white, but immigrant communities are growing; the urban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in the east and west of the state are more supportive of the Democratic Party, but the vast suburbs and rural areas tend to favor the Republican Party.

Energy is one of the key issues in the state. Pennsylvania is located in the 'Rust Belt', where industries such as coal and steel have declined, with vast shale layers. The natural gas production ranks second in the United States, and many voters are engaged in energy-related jobs. Trump firmly supports the use of hydraulic fracturing technology to extract shale gas and shale oil locally, while US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris expressed opposition to this method a few years ago, citing environmental concerns, but has somewhat softened her stance during this campaign cycle.

Georgia: 'Not turning blue, but turning 'black''

Georgia has tended towards the Republican Party in the six elections since 1996, but in 2020, Biden narrowly won by 0.2%. The Washington Post analysis attributes the Democratic victory to the rapid development of several core counties around the state capital Atlanta. However, Trump's support in small towns and rural areas of the state remains very high.

"Georgia hasn't turned blue, but it's turned 'black'" said the leader of the NAACP in Georgia. Data shows that about 1/3 of Georgia's voters are African American. On one hand, many African American women support Harris, who embodies both African American, Asian, and female identities. But on the other hand, African American men tend to be dissatisfied with the high inflation and liberal policies that have occurred during the Democratic administration.

North Carolina: Hurricanes could be an unexpected factor.

North Carolina was once considered a 'red state', with the Republican party winning 10 out of 11 elections from 1980 to 2020. However, in the past 3 elections, the difference in support between the two parties in the state has been less than 4%, with only a 1% difference in 2020.

According to Bloomberg, due to urban expansion in recent years, an increasing minority population, and an influx of young people, the number of 'independent voters' in the state has significantly increased. Especially among young people and highly educated voters, the Democratic party has higher support.

In September of this year, Hurricane 'Heleni' caused massive damage in North Carolina, leading to a political battle between the two parties in the US, making disaster relief work a political battlefield and causing dissatisfaction among many North Carolina residents. The Guardian reported: 'The hurricane may become an unexpected factor affecting the vote.'

Michigan: State with the highest proportion of Arab American population in the US

In several swing states, certain minority ethnic groups have become crucial in determining the outcome. According to the BBC, Michigan has the highest proportion of Arab Americans in its population, and the performance of the Democratic government after the recent Israeli-Palestinian conflict may affect the party's prospects.

From an economic policy perspective, similar to Pennsylvania, Michigan is also located in the 'Rust Belt' in the northern central US, with the decline of its automotive manufacturing industry as a pillar industry. Coupled with the continued impact of high inflation over the past 4 years on people's lives, voters in the state are quite dissatisfied with the federal government.

However, until Trump won by a slim margin of 0.2% in 2016, Michigan had been a 'blue state' for the previous 30 years. 'The suspense of this year's election is whether the result in 2016 was accidental or a long-term reshaping of the state's political landscape.'

The Washington Post reported: 'Michigan is a politically complex area that is not clearly divided into Republican-supporting rural areas and Democratic-supporting urban areas. The state's medium-sized cities also account for a considerable proportion of the vote, which could lead to greater changes.'

Arizona: Bordering Mexico to the south, immigration issues are in the spotlight.

The Guardian of United Kingdom stated that the 'Trumpization' of the Republican Party, rapid population growth, the appearance of a large number of young Latinx voters, and the changing views of suburban voters towards the Republican Party have turned this once staunch 'Red State', mainly consisting of white conservative populations, into a swing state. In 2020, Biden won the state by a slim margin of 0.3%.

Arizona, located in the southwest of the USA, borders Mexico to the south. As a southern border state, immigration issues and border security are major concerns. Arizona's Hispanic population has reached 2.3 million, accounting for nearly 30% of the total population in the region. How to attract their support has become a key issue for both parties. The Hispanic population in the state is mainly descendants of immigrants from Central and South America, including illegal migrants. Many support the Democratic government's tolerant stance towards immigrants. However, since 2016, the support gap between the two parties has been narrowing. Martinez, the Arizona Republican responsible for communicating with Hispanics, stated: 'More and more Hispanics born in the United States tend to believe that it is unfair for non-taxpaying illegal immigrants to access medical, education, and other services.'

Wisconsin: Less than 1% difference in votes between the two parties.

Wisconsin is the third swing state located in the 'Rust Belt' of the USA, apart from Pennsylvania and Michigan. In 2016, all three states voted for the Republican Party; in 2020, they leaned towards the Democratic Party. Only in this state, the margin of victory between the two parties was less than 1% in both presidential elections. The state's voters are mainly white and rural population, making rural counties the main battleground where economic and social issues are crucial.

On the evening of November 1st, Harris and Trump 'duked it out' in Milwaukee, the largest city in Wisconsin, with the two venues only about 11 kilometers apart. In 2016, Trump turned the tiny Democratic advantage in rural areas of the state from 2012 into a significant Republican lead of nearly 200,000 votes, winning the state. In 2020, Biden reversed the situation, especially regaining the state with a voting advantage in Milwaukee and medium-sized cities.

Nevada: Highest unemployment rate, prominent housing cost issues.

According to The Washington Post, most of the votes in Nevada are concentrated in Clark County, where Las Vegas, the largest city in Nevada, is the county seat, with nearly 3/4 of residents living there. As reported by National Public Radio, unlike the 'Rust Belt' states in the Midwest, Nevada has a significantly higher non-white population, with about 40% of voters being Hispanic, Black, or Asian. The Democratic Party has won the state in the past 4 presidential elections.

However, due to Trump's rising support among Latin American and working-class voters, the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties in the state is gradually narrowing: in 2016 and 2020, the gap remained within 2.5 percentage points. Reports suggest that many Latin American voters in Nevada are not very enthusiastic about either party's candidates. But due to issues such as inflation and medical costs, their support for the Democratic Party has declined compared to 2020.

Nevada's economy depends on tourism, with the highest unemployment rate in the US and prominent housing cost issues. Trump once said he would expel immigrants to free up more housing, while Harris said she would build 3 million new housing units. However, whether these plans can attract voters remains to be seen.

"A Window to Observe the Complexity of American Society"

Li Haidong, an expert on American issues at the Diplomatic Academy, told Global Times reporters that swing states have always been a window to observe the complexity and social-economic changes of American society. He believes that the voter groups in swing states often have intricate economic, social, and cultural backgrounds, hence they exhibit drastically different voting patterns in different election cycles. Factors such as increasing immigration, industrial transformation, and urban development in recent years have led to continuous changes in swing states and their voter composition, making it more difficult to lock in on a particular party in the long term. Whenever new policies are implemented, they re-examine their support for parties, becoming crucial political "barometers" in both presidential and midterm elections.

Authors: Bai Yunyi, Dai Runzhi; Article Source: Global Times; Original Title: "Each of the 7 Swing States in the United States Has Its Own Way of Swinging"

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