网信业务影响导致业绩承压，毛利率有所提升：2024Q3，公司实现营收9.37 亿元，同比减少42%；归母净利润-0.65 亿元；扣非归母净利润-0.65亿元，同比增长60%。公司营收同比有所减少，主要系网信业务量减少所致。2024 年Q3，公司毛利率为47%，同比提升12pct，主要系业务量减少以及毛利较高的自主软件产品业务占比加大所致。Incident: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; net profit to mother -0.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother -0.351 billion yuan, an increase of 49% over the previous year.
The results are in line with market expectations.
Key points of investment
Due to the impact of the Internet Communications business, performance was under pressure, and gross margin increased: 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; net profit to mother -0.065 billion yuan; net profit after deducting non-return to mother -0.065 billion yuan, an increase of 60% year-on-year. The company's revenue declined year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in Internet communication business volume. In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 47%, an increase of 12 pct over the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in business volume and an increase in the share of independent software products with high gross profit.
Kirin Software's Q3 performance accelerated: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and net profit of 0.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; net profit of 0.025 billion yuan, an increase of 80% year-on-year.
Mainly due to the restoration of the Party and government confidence and prosperity.
Dang Zheng Xinchuang is expected to restart, and Kirin Software is expected to fully benefit: Dang Zheng Xinchuang's follow-up space is flexible, which is 3 times that of the previous market. We believe that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to provide financial support for the Party, government, and credit innovation. The competitive pattern of Party, Government, and Xinchuang is superior to that of the industry Xinchuang, and the price system is more stable. Kirin Software is the leading domestic operating system and has a high market share in the Party, Government, and Innovation market.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Party, Government, and Xinchuangzheng is gradually restarting. Kirin Software is the leading domestic operating system in the party and government market, and is expected to accelerate performance. Based on this, we maintain China Software's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 0.157/0.345/0.608 billion yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy progress falls short of expectations; technology research and development falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.
