According to the latest data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network obtained by the Intelligence Finance App, in October 2024, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 0.063 million vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), an increase of 9% month-on-month, but a 22% decrease from the same period last year, reducing by about 0.018 million vehicles. Looking at the past eight years, 0.063 million vehicles are higher than those of October 2022 and October 2021, but lower than the sales in October of other years. Cumulatively, from January to October 2024, various types of heavy trucks were sold in China, totaling about 0.746 million vehicles, with the cumulative decline expanding to 5%.

After the traditional peak season 'Golden September' for heavy trucks turned into 'Iron September', October has become 'Copper October'. Due to the sluggish freight market and weak end-user demand for vehicle purchases, the performance of the heavy truck industry in October was relatively average, only slightly better than in September.

Market share of heavy truck enterprises in China from January to October 2024.

Looking at the performance in several key segments, firstly, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in October continued the good momentum of soaring since the beginning of the year, with an estimated terminal actual sales of around 7,000 vehicles, doubling year-on-year.

Secondly, the export of heavy trucks in October is expected to drop by nearly 20% year-on-year. Since Russia significantly increased the scrap tax rate for imported vehicles from October 1st, Chinese manufacturers and Russian dealers declared in advance. Therefore, the strong growth in exports to Russia by heavy truck enterprises in August and September to some extent anticipated the export sales in the fourth quarter.

Monthly trend chart of China's heavy truck market sales volume from 2018 to 2024 (unit: units)

Thirdly, domestic terminal sales are slightly increasing month-on-month, while sales of gas vehicles continue to decline. According to the First Commercial Vehicle Network's preliminary forecast, domestic heavy truck terminal actual sales in October are expected to increase slightly by 3-5% month-on-month, but decline by nearly 20% year-on-year, even with the policy support of trading in old vehicles for new ones, the situation remains severe. Wholesale sales are even worse than retail sales due to manufacturers and dealers destocking and lack of confidence. Moreover, due to no significant improvement in the price difference of oil and gas, domestic natural gas heavy truck terminal actual sales in October are expected to be less than 9,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of over 60%, and the market penetration rate dropping to below 20%. The penetration rate of gasification in China's domestic heavy trucks from January to October 2024 is about 33%, reducing by approximately 1.4 percentage points compared to January to September, with the arrival of the North's heating season in November, the monthly penetration rate of gas heavy trucks will decrease again, and it is unlikely that the penetration rate of gas vehicles for the whole year will reach 30%. Natural gas heavy trucks need to wait at least until next spring to return to a more prosperous state.

The top three in the industry, Sinotruk, FAW Jiefang, and Shaanxi Auto, all exceeded ten thousand units, with XCMG advancing to the top six.

Data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network shows that in the "Qualifying Round" in October, three companies achieved sales of over ten thousand units. China's Sinotruk (000951.SZ) won with 0.0165 million units sold. The other two companies with over ten thousand units are FAW Jiefang (0.012 million units) and Shaanxi Auto (0.0105 million units). Dongfeng and Beiqi Foton sold 0.009 million units and 6,000 units respectively. The only company that achieved contra-cyclical growth was XCMG (39%) for the January to October period. Overall, from January to October, the companies that achieved year-on-year market share growth were Sinotruk, Shaanxi Auto, Dayun, XCMG, and Beiben.

October 2024 Heavy Truck Sales Ranking (unit: units)

Specifically, China's Sinotruk sold approximately 0.0165 million heavy trucks in October, maintaining the industry's first place. Its cumulative sales from January to October were approximately 0.2055 million units, increasing its market share to 27.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points.

FAW Jiefang sold around 0.012 million heavy trucks in October this year, with a cumulative total of approximately 0.1479 million units sold from January to October, holding a market share of about 19.8%.

Shaanxi Auto Group (including Shaanxi Auto Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Auto Commercial Vehicle, etc.) sold approximately 0.0105 million heavy trucks in October. Sales of various types of heavy trucks from January to October this year were around 0.1241 million units, with a market share of 16.6%. Holding third place in the industry, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. Dongfeng Company (including Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Dongfeng Liuzhou Chenglong, Dongfeng Huashen, etc.) sold approximately 0.009 million heavy trucks in October; from January to October this year, Dongfeng Company's cumulative sales of heavy trucks were 0.1181 million units, with a market share of about 15.8%, currently ranking fourth in the industry.

Beiqi Foton Motor (including Beiqi Foton Daimler Automotive) sold around 0.006 million heavy trucks in October, with a cumulative sales of various types of heavy trucks of about 0.0593 million units from January to October this year. The market share is approximately 8%.

In the third echelon of the heavy truck industry, XCMG sold approximately 1800 vehicles in October, a contra-cyclical increase of 39% year-on-year, advancing to sixth place for the month. Its cumulative sales from January to October were 0.016 million units, a 14% year-on-year increase, ranking seventh in the industry with a market share of 2.1%, up 0.4 percentage points.

In October, Dayun Heavy Truck sold 1672 vehicles, ranking seventh in the industry; from January to October this year, Dayun Heavy Truck accumulated sales of 21,600 vehicles, ranking sixth in the industry, with a market share of 2.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point. Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.,Ltd. sold approximately 1000 heavy trucks in October this year, with accumulated sales of approximately 11,100 vehicles from January to October, ranking eighth in cumulative sales in the industry, with a market share of about 1.5%. Beiqi Foton Motor sold 878 heavy trucks in October, basically flat year-on-year, with accumulated sales of 8,900 vehicles from January to October, a 4% year-on-year increase, ranking ninth in cumulative sales in the industry, with a market share of about 1.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point.

How will the market be in November and December?

Due to the sluggish freight market, the traditionally strong sales season in the automotive industry known as the 'Golden September and Silver October' has turned into 'Iron September and Copper October.' Moreover, the year-on-year decline in the total sales volume of the heavy truck industry for the whole year of 2024 is becoming increasingly likely to be unavoidable.

Currently, due to the implementation plans of the old-for-new policy for trucks in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities being successively released and implemented until late August and October, the policy information 'reached' end users basically by October. Currently, many of the industry news seen in the media are local government promotion and advocacy meetings for the old-for-new policy for trucks. Therefore, the real impact of this policy will start to show in the fourth quarter. Some of the domestic terminal market sales in October are already a result of the scrappage and replacement of National III trucks. However, unfortunately, the number of National III heavy-duty freight trucks in operation is too small, coupled with the sluggish freight market, resulting in a significantly lower demand for new vehicles after scrappage than expected. Nevertheless, with the policy deadline approaching on December 31, 2024, it is expected that the stimulating effect of this policy will further manifest in November and December, and domestic heavy-duty truck sales will also show a relatively significant month-on-month growth.