It's been a sad week for PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$28.08 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$8.4b, while statutory losses ballooned to US$2.48 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the 13 analysts covering PBF Energy provided consensus estimates of US$32.9b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 5.8% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with PBF Energy forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.63 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$33.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.78 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$32.69, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PBF Energy at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.8% per year. It's pretty clear that PBF Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PBF Energy. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PBF Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PBF Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for PBF Energy that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
