Hartnett分析称，这是由于无论是特朗普还是哈里斯当选，新政府都可能在2025年采取行动控制预算赤字。The reason is that if the new government recognizes the inflation issue, they may appoint hawkish Treasury officials, which would be bullish for US bonds and bearish for gold.
As the US presidential election approaches, Mike Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America Securities, has put forward a contrarian investment recommendation: Buying US bonds could become the most promising trading opportunity after the election.
In the latest 'Flow Show' report, Hartnett wrote that over the past four months, the US dollar and US bond yields have continued to strengthen, mainly due to the market's warming expectations of a Trump victory. However, it is precisely this overly consistent market expectation that exposes the US dollar and US bond yields to potential adjustment risks.
Hartnett's analysis suggests that whether it is Trump or Harris who wins, the new government may take action to control the budget deficit by 2025.
The reason is due to strong dissatisfaction among voters over rising inflation and living costs, which has been clearly reflected in Biden's continuously declining approval ratings (as shown in the chart below, Hartnett believes that even with low unemployment rates, Biden's approval ratings continue to decline, reflecting the huge impact of inflation on the election situation).
In this context, the new US government may appoint fiscally hawkish Treasury officials, which will bring significant investment opportunities for long-term US bonds.
Hartnett's three major 'contrarian' investment strategies
In this context, Hartnett has proposed three major contrarian investment strategies worth paying attention to.
Trump's victory is not bullish for the stock market. The reason is that Trump's tax cuts and tariff policies may further push up inflation, instead triggering market adjustments. On the contrary, Harris's election may maintain the status quo, bullish for globalization and technology stocks.
Global markets will outperform the US market. The reason is that Trump's tariff policy may prompt Asian and European central banks to take aggressive interest rate cuts, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks leading to lower oil prices, thereby driving the local markets higher.
Long-term US bonds will present investment opportunities. The reason is that if the new government recognizes the inflation issue, it may appoint more hawkish officials in the Treasury Department, bullish for US bonds, bearish for gold.
Editor/Somer
