公司前三季度利润同比下行主要原因是：1）境外较高毛利率的逆变器及电池销售收入的金额下降，境内较低毛利率的户用光伏系统等销售收入的增加金额，导致总体销售毛利较大减少；2）同时随着公司研发持续投入、市场开拓力度加强、规模效应下降等综合因素影响，使得成本费用率较去年有所上升。公司Q3 利润已环比有所改善，看好公司后续盈利能力持续修复。Incidents:
On October 29, 2024, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. According to the company's announcement, the company achieved operating income of 4.943 billion yuan, -12.51% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 8.6521 million yuan, -93.03% year on year; realized net profit after deduction of -31.6891 million yuan, or -103.58% year on year.
On a quarterly basis, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 1.796 billion yuan, -2.20% year on year, -11.17% month on month; realized net profit of 32.4827 million yuan, -78.64% year on year, +550.84% month on month; realized net profit without return to mother of 23.2278 million yuan, -83.68% year on year, +216.19% month on month.
The main reasons for the year-on-year decline in the company's profit in the first three quarters were: 1) the decline in the amount of overseas sales revenue of inverters and batteries with higher gross margins, and the increase in domestic sales revenue from household photovoltaic systems with lower gross margin, which led to a significant decrease in overall sales margin; 2) At the same time, due to a combination of factors such as the company's continuous investment in R&D, increased market development efforts, and declining scale effects, the cost ratio increased compared to last year. The company's Q3 profit has improved month-on-month, and I am optimistic that the company's profitability will continue to recover in the future.
Industry inventory removal has accelerated, and profitability has improved
According to the company's semi-annual report, 24H1's inverter sales volume was about 0.2785 million units, of which grid-connected inverters sold about 0.2559 million units, accounting for about 91.89%; the sales volume of energy storage inverters was about 0.0226 million units, accounting for about 8.11%. Overseas sales of inverter products were 0.0.1552 million units, accounting for 55.71%. Overseas revenue was affected by high inventories in overseas industries. Sales of inverters and batteries declined compared to the same period last year. As industry inventories gradually disappear, we expect the company's revenue scale to pick up. According to the company's investor research records, the structure of the company's overall sales area is expected to improve since the third quarter. Among them, the proportion of overseas sales increased month-on-month in Q3. In terms of gross margin, the gross margin of sales in Q3 was 23.41%, up 3.26 pcts from Q2. From this, it is determined that the company's shipping structure may have improved.
Investment advice
The company's profit is under pressure in the short term. As the company's global layout deepens and overseas inverter inventory removal accelerates, I am optimistic that the company's profitability will continue to recover in the future. We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 7.447/10.81/12.497 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 0.155/0.595/0.821 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 79x/20x/15x, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand falls short of expectations, market competition increases risks, etc.
