9M24 公司联营合营企业投资收益（包括景顺长城和长城基金）4.3 亿元，同比-20.7%，占公司证券主营收比15.1%。3Q24 公司联营合营企业投资收益1.3 亿元，同比/环比-22.5%/-17.3%。受益于公募基金行业规模集中度提升趋势，景顺长城规模增长明显。期末，景顺长城非货/权益/债券基金规模分别为4018.7/1935.0/1964.0 亿元，较年初+19.3%/+4.7%/+33.0% 。长城基金非货/ 权益/ 债券基金规模分别为1371.5/256.6/1112.1 亿元，较年初+2.9%/-25.4%/+12.6%。公司旗下公募基金规模整体在行业中较为领先，我们预计若四季度基金市场回暖有望增厚公司长股投收益。Incident: 10/30, Great Wall Securities disclosed its third quarter report. 9M24 achieved revenue of 2.85 billion yuan, -9.4% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 1.1 billion yuan, or -9.5% year-on-year. 3Q24's revenue was 0.87 billion yuan, -8.4% YoY/ -19.4%; net profit to mother was 0.38 billion yuan, +16.4%/+2.1% YoY. 9M24's weighted average ROE was 3.8%, compared to -0.56 pct in the same period last year.
Non-directional transformation continued to be promoted. Investment leverage increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, and self-employment was the main driver of performance. In recent years, the company has continued to promote the transformation of various asset allocations, build a steady investment system with relatively weak exposure, and enhance the company's resilience to withstand and smooth the market cycle. 9M24's net income from its own investment was 1.67 billion yuan, +7.7% year-on-year, accounting for 58.9% of the company's securities main revenue. The net income from 3Q24's own investment was 0.51 billion yuan, +53.0%/-20.9% YoY. At the end of the period, the size of the company's financial investment assets/transactional financial assets was 61/55.2 billion yuan respectively, +7.30%/+1.79% compared to the beginning of the year; the company's investment leverage ratio was 2.07 times, +0.08 times higher than at the beginning of the year. On September 2, 2024, the board of directors of the company deliberated and passed the “Proposal on Applying for Beijing Stock Exchange Stock Market Trading Business Eligibility and Carrying Out Related Business”. It is proposed to apply for the Beijing Stock Exchange's market trading qualifications. We believe that actively promoting the development of the market making business is expected to reduce fluctuations in equity exposure and enhance the stability of overall proprietary income.
The scale of Invesco Great Wall is growing rapidly, and the size of the Great Wall Fund is growing steadily. It is expected that the public asset management business will contribute more to performance in the future.
9M24's joint venture investment income (including Invesco Great Wall and Great Wall Fund) was 0.43 billion yuan, -20.7% year-on-year, accounting for 15.1% of the company's securities main revenue. 3Q24's joint venture investment income was 0.13 billion yuan, -22.5% YoY/-17.3%. Benefiting from the trend of increasing scale concentration in the public fund industry, the scale of Invesco Great Wall has increased significantly. At the end of the period, the size of Invesco Great Wall's non-goods/equity/bond funds was 401.87/193.5/196.4 billion yuan, respectively, +19.3%/+4.7%/+33.0% compared to the beginning of the year. The size of the non-commodities/equity/bond funds of Great Wall Fund was 137.15/25.66/111.21 billion yuan, respectively, +2.9%/-25.4%/+12.6% compared to the beginning of the year. The overall size of the company's public funds is relatively leading in the industry. We expect that if the fund market recovers in the fourth quarter, it is expected to increase the company's general stock investment income.
Brokerage revenue is affected by active and declining market trading, and the “Great Wall of Wealth” brand continues to be built to promote wealth management transformation. 9M24's brokerage revenue was 0.53 billion yuan, -12.5% YoY. 3Q24's brokerage revenue was 0.16 billion yuan, -21.5% YoY/-17.8%. At the end of the period, the company's customer capital was 25.3 billion yuan, +30.7% compared to the end of the previous quarter and +25.1% compared to the beginning of the year. The company built a wealth line brand matrix around the “Great Wall of Fortune”, built and operated the “Great Wall Alchemy” app, enriched product centers such as “Great Wall Kunpeng” with bonds and ETFs as the core, and actively laid out fund investment business, etc., to continue to empower wealth management transformation. We are optimistic that the company will continue to improve the scale of customer assets and the room for achieving performance brought about by the company's wealth management brand, channels, and product strength.
Investment analysis opinion: The company's shareholders have a deep background, outstanding asset management characteristics, and active transformation of brokerage and self-management. It is expected that they will form a differentiated and characteristic competitive advantage with traditional brokerage firms in the future. We slightly lowered our 24-25E forecast (original forecast was 1.8, 2 billion yuan, forecast period October 2023) and added a 26E forecast. We expect Great Wall Securities 24-26E to achieve net profit of 1.5, 1.7, 1.9 billion yuan, yoy +5%/+10%/+16%, maintaining Great Wall Securities's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Capital market reforms fell short of expectations, and the effect of boosting liquidity in the A-share market fell short of expectations. The market declined sharply, and the growth in the size of the New Development Fund and fund size was weak.