维持“增持”评级。2024Q1-Q3营收13.35亿元，同比下滑15.87%，归母净利润-0.70 亿元，其中实验室服务贡献净利润-171 万元，资金管理收益贡献净利润6522 万元，生物资产公允价值变动净损失1.77亿元；Q3 单季度营收4.86 亿元，同比下滑15.51%，归母净利润0.99亿元，同比下滑58.04%，业绩符合预期。考虑项目价格竞争压力以及生物资产公允价值变动影响，下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测为0.08/0.52/0.68 元（原0.65/0.76/0.88 元）。参考可比公司估值，给予2025 年PE38X，维持目标价19.60 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Gross margin is under pressure in the short term, on-hand orders guarantee performance growth, and capacity building and internationalization are progressing steadily.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 1.335 billion yuan, down 15.87% year on year, net profit to mother was -0.07 billion yuan, of which laboratory services contributed net profit of -1.71 million yuan, fund management revenue contributed net profit of 65.22 million yuan, net loss of change in fair value of biological assets 0.177 billion yuan; Q3 single quarter revenue was 0.486 billion yuan, down 15.51% year on year, net profit to mother 0.099 billion yuan Yuan, down 58.04% year on year, results are in line with expectations. Considering the competitive pressure on project prices and the impact of changes in the fair value of biological assets, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was reduced to 0.08/0.52/0.68 yuan (previously 0.65/0.76/0.88 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE38X was given, the target price was maintained at 19.60 yuan, and the “gain” rating was maintained.
Gross margin was phased under pressure, and the laboratory service business contributed to a month-on-month increase in net profit. In 2024, the Q1-Q3 laboratory service business contributed -1.71 million yuan to net profit, 2024H1 to -1,524 yuan, and the net profit of laboratory services in the Q3 quarter reached 13.53 million yuan, an improvement over the previous quarter. The overall gross profit margin for 2024Q1-Q3 was 27.48%, down 16.29 pcts year on year, 22.43% in the Q3 quarter, down 20.36 pcts year on year, and 6.41 pct month-on-month, mainly due to market price competition.
It is expected that as the domestic and foreign investment and financing environment improves and price competition slows down, gross margin is expected to improve in the Q4 single quarter. As of 2024H1, active orders of 2.9 billion yuan and new orders of 0.9 billion yuan were signed to guarantee growth in performance.
Production capacity is progressing steadily, and internationalization is increasing. As of 2024H1, the 20,000 m2 facility of the Suzhou Zhaoyan Phase II was capped in 2023 and is expected to be put into use in early 2025. The 22000 m2 supporting facilities construction project in Suzhou is expected to be completed and put into use by the end of 2024. The construction of the Guangzhou security assessment base is progressing in an orderly manner. Zhaoyan Yichuang Non-GLP Laboratory, a wholly-owned subsidiary focusing on early drugability evaluation and drug screening services, was put into use in 2023 and is currently in a period of rapid business growth. Guangxi Weimei, a wholly-owned company, is actively building an experimental business system for non-human primate model animals. It is expected that construction of related supporting laboratories will begin in the second half of 2024. Overseas subsidiary business continued to expand. Overseas business revenue in 2023 was 0.579 billion yuan, up 51.20% year on year. 2024H1 signed a new overseas Biomere order of about 1.4 yuan, and internationalization continued to advance.
Catalysts: Rapid release of new production capacity, new business expansion exceeding expectations, increase in on-hand orders.
Risk warning: Innovative drug investment and financing fell short of expectations, and industry competition intensified.
