1-3Q24 分板块，我们估算，数字成本、数字施工、数字设计收入分别为36.25 亿元、4.5 亿元、4700 万元，分别同比-1.3%、-40%、-26.2%。我们估算：1）数字成本：受行业景气度影响，造价新签云合同减少，影响收入结转。1-3Q 传统造价业务收入同比-0.7%，数字新成本收入同比-4.5%；1-3Q 新签云合同23.46 亿元，同比-7.41%。3Q24 末，公司合同负债同比-9%，较2Q24 下降幅度有所扩大，下游需求影响下，新签云合同存在压力、仍待修复。2）数字施工：受项目开工数量影响继续收缩，我们认为公司25 年或将继续聚焦核心产品、重点区域，提高利润率水平；3）数字设计：继续聚焦打通设计算量一体化，打磨标杆案例为规模化推广奠定基础。1-3Q24 revenue and net profit fall short of market expectations
The company announced 1-3Q24 results: operating income of 4.367 billion yuan, -8.1% year on year; net profit to mother of 0.213 billion yuan, -18.5% year over year. Main business revenue and net profit were lower than market expectations, mainly due to industry sentiment falling short of expectations, and the decline in new cloud contracts exceeded expectations. In a single quarter, 3Q24 revenue was 1.429 billion yuan, -15.9% YoY; net profit to mother was 21.44 million yuan, +59.7% YoY.
Development trends
In the 1-3Q24 segment, we estimate that digital cost, digital construction, and digital design revenue were 3.625 billion yuan, 0.45 billion yuan, and 47 million yuan, respectively, -1.3%, -40%, and -26.2%, respectively. We estimate: 1) Digital costs: Affected by industry sentiment, the cost of signing new cloud contracts has decreased, affecting revenue carry-over. 1-3Q traditional cost business revenue -0.7% YoY, digital new cost revenue -4.5% YoY; 1-3Q signed a new cloud contract of 2.346 billion yuan, -7.41% YoY. At the end of 3Q24, the company's contract debt was -9% year-on-year, increasing the decline from 2Q24. Under the influence of downstream demand, new cloud contracts are under pressure and still need to be repaired. 2) Digital construction: Continued contraction due to the number of projects started. We believe that the company may continue to focus on core products and key regions to raise profit margins in 25 years; 3) Digital design: continue to focus on integrating design and calculation, and polish benchmark cases to lay the foundation for large-scale promotion.
Fee control results were obvious, and 3Q24 OCF increased year-on-year. The 3Q24 company's gross margin was +0.9ppt year-on-year, which we think is mainly due to an improvement in the revenue structure. In 3Q24, sales/R&D/management expenses decreased by 15.6/17.7/ 14.6% respectively. The company carried out personnel optimization in 2024. For example, after excluding layoffs, the reduction in management expenses was even more obvious, and we think it is expected to bring profit support for the next quarter. The company's intangible assets at the end of 3Q24 were 1.336 billion yuan, an increase of 0.2 billion yuan over the end of 2Q24, mainly due to the carry-over of development expenses, which we believe may have led to an increase in amortization of intangible assets in R&D expenses. 3Q24 OCF 0.551 billion yuan, +87.5% year over year, mainly due to strict cost-side control and a decrease in loans issued by financial subsidiaries during the same period.
Looking ahead to the future market, we believe that the company's main highlights are: 1) after the completion of personnel optimization in 24 years, labor costs are greatly controlled, and profit performance is expected to be supported in 25 years; 2) changes in market expectations for downstream demand and policies. The pessimistic expectations of the company in the past brought obvious valuation suppression to the company. Market sentiment is expected to improve with fiscal stimulus and the introduction of real estate policies; 3) The possibility of improving the company's new orders may increase, and there is still a certain time lag between the company's new orders. Support subsequent revenue and profit performance.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Due to the decline in the company's 1-3Q new orders that exceeded expectations or affected subsequent quarterly revenue, we lowered 2024/2025 operating income by 7.2%/6.9% to 6.033/6.265 billion yuan respectively; considering the decline in revenue and the impact of one-time payments, we lowered 2024 net profit 19.7% to 0.384 billion yuan; however, considering the decline in costs and expenses after personnel optimization, we kept our profit forecast unchanged for 2025. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio of 56.9 times/29.4 times. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 17.00 yuan corresponds to 37.8 times the price-earnings ratio of 2025, with 28.7% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
The impact of downstream demand exceeded expectations; the risk of credit impairment in accounts receivable; and the repair of new orders fell short of expectations.