24Q3 基本面底部已现，氨纶弹性可期。公司24Q3 归母净利润为4.96 亿元（yoy-13%，QoQ-41%），主要系己二酸行情走弱影响，10 月以来价差已较9 月迅速修复近千元，三季度行情不具备持续性。根据百川盈孚，主要受PTMEG 成本端支撑减弱影响，截至2024年11 月1 日，24Q4 国内氨纶40D 的均价仍处底部徘徊，但均价差环比仍维持基本持平态势，行业盈利底部特征明显。展望明年，行业大面积亏损下，氨纶投产已近尾声，头部企业放缓节奏，成本曲线右侧产能具退出预期，且应用范围扩大叠加添加量的提升，催化氨纶需求持续增长，供需偏紧的局面或逐步显现。公司凭借规模与成本优势，具备穿越周期的能力，氨纶底部利润坚实，待行业盈利能力有所修复时，公司具备较大的业绩弹性。Key points of investment:
The company disclosed a restructuring plan to acquire the Group's synthetic resin and TPU assets. On November 1, 2024, the company issued the “Plan for Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash to Purchase Assets and Related Transactions”. It plans to issue shares and pay cash to Huafeng Group to purchase 100% of its Huafeng Synthetic Resin shares; to issue shares to Huafeng Group and pay cash to purchase 100% of its Huafeng Thermoplastics shares.
The polyurethane integrated platform was extended again, increasing annual profits by about 0.47 billion yuan. According to the company announcement, the current shareholding structure of Huafeng Synthetic Resin is as follows: 1) Huafeng Group 51%, You Xiaoping 19%, You Xiaohua 15%; 2) Mainly engaged in the production of polyurethane resin for leather, which is mainly used to manufacture polyurethane synthetic leather, which is widely used in footwear, bags, furniture, automotive interiors, clothing fabrics, etc.; 3) The operating revenue for the full year of 2022/2023/2024 is 3.32/3.5/3.3 billion yuan, with net profit of 0.167/0.306/0.264 billion yuan (financial data unaudited). The situation of Huafeng Thermoplastics is as follows: 1) The current shareholding structure is 100% of Huafeng Group; 2) It is mainly engaged in thermoplastic polyurethane elastomer production. It is a novel organic polymer synthetic material with great potential. It has both rubber and plastic properties, excellent performance, green and environmentally friendly, can effectively replace traditional materials such as PVC, rubber, EVA, silicone, etc., and is widely used in footwear, film, clothing, military, automobiles, electronic appliances, medical and other fields; 3) The revenue for the full year of 2022/2024 for the first three quarters of 2022/2024 was 2.89/2.82.37 billion yuan, net profit of 0.159/0.159/0.105 billion yuan (financial data unaudited). The issue price of the assets purchased in this issue is 6.14 yuan/share, and the assessed value and transaction price of the relevant assets have not yet been determined.
The basic bottom of 24Q3 is now available, and spandex elasticity can be expected. The company's net profit for 24Q3 was 0.496 billion yuan (yoy -13%, QoQ -41%), mainly due to the weakening of the adipic acid market. Since October, the price difference has quickly recovered nearly 1,000 yuan compared to September, and the market was unsustainable in the third quarter. According to Baichuan Yingfu, it is mainly affected by the weakening of PTMEG's cost-side support. As of November 1, 2024, the average price of spandex 40D in 24Q4 was still at the bottom, but the average price spread remained basically flat from month to month, and the bottom of the industry's profit base was obvious. Looking ahead to next year, with extensive losses in the industry, spandex production is nearing its end. Leading companies are slowing down, production capacity on the right side of the cost curve has withdrawn from expectations, and the scope of application is expanding and increasing the amount of superimposed additives, catalyzing continued growth in demand for spandex, and a tight supply and demand situation may gradually become apparent. With its scale and cost advantages, the company has the ability to cross the cycle. The bottom profit of spandex is solid. When the profitability of the industry is repaired, the company has great performance flexibility.
Investment analysis: The company is a global mainstream enterprise for spandex, adipic acid and polyurethane stock solutions. It has remarkable advantages in scale, technology and cost. It will further cultivate the industry in the future, and the strong will continue to strengthen. Without considering this acquisition, we maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 2.631, 3.812, and 4.765 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.77, and 0.96 yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE of 15X, 11X, and 8X, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
Risk warning: 1) Prices of major products such as spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane stock solution fell sharply; 2) construction of new projects such as spandex fell short of expectations; 3) downstream textile and garment demand declined sharply.
