公司2024Q1-Q3 实现营收27.17 亿元（同增5%），归母净利润2.03 亿元（同增28%），扣非归母净利润1.91 亿元（同增31%）。其中2024Q3 公司营收9.36 亿元（同减1%），归母净利润0.68 亿元（同增35%），扣非归母净利润0.67 亿元（同增57%）。盈利端，2024Q3 公司毛利率同减1pct 至31.34%，主要系UHT 系列奶油增长影响产品结构，同时主要原料进口乳制品价格上涨所致，销售/管理费用率分别同减2pct/1pct 至10.52%/6.89%，主要系公司严格落实费用预算，提高投入产出比所致，净利率同增2pct 至7.14%。On October 29, 2024, Ligao Foods released its report for the third quarter of 2024.
Key points of investment
Revenue was slightly pressured year over year, and changes in product structure affected gross profit
The company achieved revenue of 2.717 billion yuan in 2024Q1-Q3 (same increase of 5%), net profit of 0.203 billion yuan (same increase of 28%), and net profit of non-return to mother of 0.191 billion yuan (same increase of 31%). Among them, in 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 0.936 billion yuan (same decrease of 1%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.068 billion yuan (same increase of 35%), and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.067 billion yuan (same increase of 57%). On the profit side, 2024Q3's gross margin also decreased by 1 pct to 31.34%, mainly due to the increase in the price of imported dairy products as the main raw material. Sales/management expenses decreased by 2 pct/1 pct to 10.52%/6.89%, respectively. It was mainly due to the company's strict implementation of the cost budget and increasing the input-output ratio. The net margin also increased by 2 pct to 7.14%.
The UHT plant is officially put into operation, and channel adjustments continue to advance
On the product side, frozen baked goods are affected by the adjustment of the listing schedule of some products in core supermarket channels, and revenue performance is under pressure; new products of whipped cream in bakery ingredients are growing steadily, and the marketing price of UHT series cream continues to be high, and gross margin is under pressure, but at present, the scale effect is gradually being released, and the company's second cream factory has completed sterility verification, trial production of major single products, and strict testing in Q4, and will strongly undertake the production and preparation tasks of the company's high-end cream during the peak season at the end of the year. On the channel side, in addition to the stability of mochi products, in the supermarket channel, revenue declined due to the phased delisting and renewal of other products. Q4 has already entered the reserve phase, and the channel is expected to continue to recover after the adjustment period; the increase in distribution cake channels is mainly driven by whipped cream products and the company's policy support for leading dealers; catering and new retail channels recovered sequentially, and preparations progressed well in October. Subsequent companies gave priority to customized work for top customers and invested in marketing resources.
Profit forecasting
The company updates its business strategy in a timely manner based on market performance. Product/channel play ideas are gradually clarified, and the profit side continues to recover. As cream production capacity climbs and market demand recovers, the company's profit-side flexibility is expected to be further unleashed. According to the three-quarter report, we adjusted the 2024-2026 EPS to 1.58/1.86/2.25 (previous value was 1.48/1.90/2.45), respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23/20/16 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downside risks, rising raw material costs, new product promotion falls short of expectations, and demand recovery falls short of expectations.
