省内基本盘稳固，省外渠道库存仍需时间消化。24Q3 末公司合同负债为19.36 亿，环比下降2.83 亿，同比下降13.80 亿。行业整体动销疲软的背景下，经销商回款意愿不足。分区域来看，由于省外古20 占比较高，行业承压下受到的冲击更大，渠道库存显著高于省内，省外经销商回款进度慢于省内。分产品来看，古16 在宴席等场景表现较优，古5、古8 基本盘稳健增长，古20 仍需时间进一步消化渠道库存。Incidents:
The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on January 30, 2024. The 24Q1-Q3 company achieved operating income of 19.069 billion yuan, +19.53% YoY; net profit attributed/withheld from mother was 4.746/4.7 billion, +24.49%/+25.55% YoY. The 24Q3 company achieved operating income of 5.263 billion, +13.36% year over year; net profit of 1.174/1.159 billion due to mother/deducted from mother, +13.60%/14.52% year over year.
Comment:
The basic market within the province is stable, and inventory from channels outside the province will still take time to digest. The company's contract debt at the end of 24Q3 was 1.936 billion, down 0.283 billion month-on-month and 1.38 billion year-on-year. Against the backdrop of weak sales in the industry as a whole, dealers are not willing to pay back. Looking at the subregion, due to the relatively high share of ancient 20 outside the province, the impact on the industry was greater under pressure. Channel inventory was significantly higher than within the province, and the repayment progress of dealers outside the province was slower than within the province. By product, Gu 16 performed well in scenes such as banquets. Gu 5 and Gu 8 basic models grew steadily, while Gu 20 still needed time to further digest channel inventory.
Q3 Gross margin declined, taxes and surcharges increased a lot, and sales expenses dropped sharply. The gross margin of 24q3 fell 1.55 pcts year on year to 77.87%. It is mainly due to a slowdown in the growth rate of high-priced products such as Gu 20, and due to weak industry demand, the company increased sales discounts to facilitate dealer repayment. In terms of expense ratios, Q3 taxes and surcharges increased by 2.40 pcts year on year; the sales expense ratio dropped sharply by 5.32 pcts to 23.01%, reflecting the company's ability to fine control expenses; the management expense ratio decreased by 0.14 pct to 6.07% year on year; and the financial expense ratio increased by 0.43 pcts year on year, mainly due to a sharp decrease in interest income. In 24Q3, the company's net profit margin increased 0.05pct year-on-year to 22.30%, and profitability remained steady.
Channel advantages within the province guarantee the basic market, and we expect markets outside the province to gradually recover in the context of consumption recovery. The company's remarkable channel advantage in Anhui Province is a ballast stone to guarantee the steady growth of the company's own performance under pressure from the industry as a whole. As the economy recovers and expectations of a recovery in consumer demand increase, Gu 20's sales outside the province are also expected to gradually improve.
Investment advice: Currently, consumer demand in the liquor industry is relatively weak, so we have appropriately lowered our profit forecast. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue growth rate to be 17.93%/12.18%/16.25%, net profit growth rate to mother of 22.78%/17.20%/20.60%, EPS is 10.66/12.49/15.07 yuan, corresponding PE is 18x/15x/13x, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Consumer demand recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies
