维持“增持”评级。2024Q1-Q3营收11.28亿元，同比下滑12.67%，归母净利润1.32 亿元，同比下滑-14.45%；Q3 单季度营收3.83 亿元，同比下滑14.39%，归母净利润0.33 亿元，同比下滑17.57%，业绩符合预期。考虑项目价格竞争压力以及汇率波动影响，下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测为0.93/1.11/1.36 元（原1.04/1.25/1.52 元）。Introduction to this report:
Profitability is under pressure in the short term, orders continue to improve, and we are optimistic about the room for long-term growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 1.128 billion yuan, down 12.67% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.132 billion yuan, down -14.45% year on year; Q3 single quarter revenue was 0.383 billion yuan, down 14.39% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.033 billion yuan, down 17.57% year on year, and performance was in line with expectations. Considering the competitive pressure on project prices and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.93/1.11/1.36 yuan (originally 1.04/1.25/1.52 yuan).
Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE39X was given, and the target price was raised to 43.29 yuan (previously 31.25 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Profitability is under pressure in the short term. Product and service revenue during the 2024Q1-Q3 drug research phase was 0.253 billion yuan, down 0.97% year on year. Overseas market development continued to be increased, the establishment of a Swiss subsidiary was completed, and the construction of a European molecular block warehouse and marketing and sales team progressed in an orderly manner. Drug Development and Manufacturing Services (CDMO) revenue was 0.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.58%. The 2024Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 39.72%, down 3.16 pct year on year, and the Q3 gross profit margin was 37.48%, down 3.89 pct year on year, mainly due to competition on the product price side.
The number of projects and customers has been steadily expanding, and the amount of on-hand orders has maintained a high growth rate. The company focuses on customer needs and strengthens its business and market expansion capabilities. As of 2024H1, the amount of orders in progress increased by more than 20% year on year. As of 2024H1, the number of new 2024Q3 orders continued to improve. As of 2024H1, there were 726 active customers, up 8.77% year on year, and 137 new customers were added, up 34.31% year on year. Coverage of key customers was increased, and revenue from large MNC companies of 0.216 billion increased by 45.84% year-on-year, accounting for 29%. Continue to promote the development pattern of molecular blocks, drug discovery, and bidirectional CDMO drainage. The project pipeline is progressing. As of 2024H1, there are 1,200 pre-clinical to phase II projects, and 35 from phase III to commercialization, ensuring performance growth. The layout of cutting-edge fields such as TPD (targeted proteolytic drugs), ADC, oligonucleotides, and peptides continues to be increased. The order amount for peptide-related businesses exceeds 10 million yuan, and emerging businesses are expected to contribute to the increase.
Catalyst: Order expansion exceeded expectations, terminal demand improved
Risk warning: industry competition increases risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, geopolitical risk
