工业稳健增长，商业有所下滑。2024 年前三季度，公司工业板块收入完成35.9亿元，同比增加4.3%，商业板块收入完成23.3 亿元，同比减少14.5%。公司坚定推进“三核九翼”大品种战略，坚持以学术化、专业化推广为重点，同时创新营销模式，利用B2B、B2C、O2O 等互联网模式拓宽营销渠道，积极推进线上线下销售一体化。Matters:
The company announced revenue for the first three quarters of 24, 5.61, 0.8, and 0.77 billion yuan of non-net profit, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -6.3%, and -8.9%, of which 3Q24 revenue, net profit to mother, deducted non-net profit were -3.4%, +7.7%, and +2.5% year-on-year.
Commentary:
Industry is growing steadily, and commerce has declined. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's industrial sector revenue reached 3.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and commercial sector revenue reached 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%. The company firmly promotes the “three core and nine wings” large-scale strategy, insists on focusing on academic and professional promotion, while innovating marketing models, using B2B, B2C, O2O and other Internet models to broaden marketing channels, and actively promote the integration of online and offline sales.
The 2.0 version of the marketing architecture is gradually being implemented, and the results are worth looking forward to. 1) Marketing leadership: The company deeply empowers health technology marketing platforms, enhances professional guidance, closely matches market needs, and accelerates the transformation from administration to market operation. 2) Specialized operation: Establish three major business divisions: medical care, retail, and innovation, and strengthen channel expertise. 3) Channel decline: The medical and retail division has set up 5 major and 9 regions, implemented a branch system, and went deep into the city. Through the “626” project, 2,000 pharmacy chains were selected, and 626 (including 0.18 million pharmacies) were selected to focus on the Southern Market. The plan is to set up a 600-person promotion team covering 0.06 million pharmacies, with the goal of fully covering 0.18 million pharmacies with 10 key varieties within three years.
Financial indicators showed steady performance. 1) 3Q24 gross margin increased 6.5 pct year on year to 46.6%; 3Q24 net profit rate increased by 8.6% year on year (+1.1 pct year on year); 2) 3Q24 sales rate increased 4.2 pct to 27.0% year on year, and management rate increased 0.9 pct to 6.6% year on year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in brand building costs, consulting fees, and employee remuneration during the same period. At the same time, the company repurchased restricted stocks that did not meet the unlocking conditions, which offset amortization expenses; financial rates increased 0.4 pct to 0.4% year over year.
Investment advice: The marketing structure continues to be upgraded to maintain the “recommended” rating. We expect the company's net profit to be 1.04/1.22/1.45 billion yuan in 24-26, with a year-on-year growth rate of +5%/18%/18%. Refer to industry comparable company valuations, and give the company a 25-year 25x target PE, corresponding to a target price of 39.8 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Sales of core products fall short of expectations, marketing reforms fall short of expectations, risk of policy fluctuations.
