投资建议：首 次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。公司作为遥感产业龙头，预计2024-2026 年营收分别为21.53/31.05/41.50 亿元，EPS 分别为0.18/0.78/1.53 元，结合PE 和PS 两种估值方法，给予公司2025 年37.5 倍PE 估值，合理估值为76.77 亿元人民币，对应目标价29.38元。Introduction to this report:
The company is in a leading position in the remote sensing industry. It is the first domestic integrated service covering the entire industry chain in the field of remote sensing satellites. At the same time, it has a forward-looking layout for commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies. The future performance growth rate is expected to exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: First coverage, with an “increase in weight” rating. As a leader in the remote sensing industry, the company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.153/3.105/4.15 billion yuan, and EPS 0.18/0.78/1.53 yuan respectively. Combining PE and PS valuation methods, the company is given a PE valuation of 37.5 times in 2025. The reasonable valuation is 7.677 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 29.38 yuan.
A leader in the digital remote sensing industry, the entire industry chain layout helps long-term growth. As a leading satellite Internet company in China, Aerospace Hongtu has established a clear competitive advantage in the remote sensing industry through its entire industrial chain layout, including the construction of the “Constellation”, the development of the PIE-engine platform, and the further development of space infrastructure planning and construction, PIE+ industry product line, and cloud service product line. Through continuous technological innovation and market expansion, it provides a solid foundation for the company's revenue growth in the next few years.
The entire industry chain lays out the integration of aerospace data to open up a second growth curve. The company has a forward-looking layout for commercial space and low-altitude economy, creating a “upstream autonomous data - midstream autonomous platform - downstream large-scale application” business layout, and seizing the blue ocean market with the “Nu Ewa Constellation” program and drone remote sensing technology. The “Nu Constellation” will significantly enhance the company's ability to obtain remote sensing data from around the world, and achieve a one-hour global revisit and all-day sub-meter Earth observation capabilities. Furthermore, the company's low-cost mass production process and cluster flight control technology in the drone field have demonstrated the company's strong potential in emerging fields. With the rapid development of the satellite internet and drone market in the future, the company is expected to achieve performance growth that exceeds expectations and consolidate its leading position in the remote sensing industry.
Technological innovation creates competitive barriers, and the company actively lays out overseas markets to develop international business.
Facing macroeconomic and policy challenges, Aerospace Hongtu continued to increase investment in R&D, and achieved remarkable results in invention patents and software copyrights in 2023. This continuous pursuit of technological innovation not only helps the company overcome industry challenges in the short term, but also builds strong technical barriers in the long term, providing strong support for the company's continued growth and industry leadership. Aerospace Hongtu has established a good reputation around the world through cooperation with international partners and project implementation in overseas markets. The company's project cooperation in countries along the “Belt and Road” not only responds to national strategies, but also provides new impetus for the company's international development.
Risk warning: risk of business development falling short of expectations, risk of macroeconomic downturn.
