Source: Barron's Chinese Author: Nicholas Jaskinski Evan Greenberg, CEO of Chubb Ltd, has a highly influential fan - Warren Buffet, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway disclosed last month that it held 6% of the shares in Chubb, one of the world's largest insurance companies, by the end of 2023. Berkshire itself is a major participant in the insurance industry, but it is not the only buyer. In the past year, Chubb's stock return, including dividends, was about 40%, surpassing the S&P 500 index's total return of 25%, and making the company's market capitalization reach $110 billion. This increase in market capitalization reflects Chubb's outstanding performance, which is attributed to its prudent underwriting practices and conservative management of its investment portfolio of about $140 billion. The company's earnings per share increased by 48% in 2023 and its book value per share increased by 21%. Greenberg is the son of Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the former CEO of American International Group (AIG). Greenberg worked at AIG for 25 years, rising through the ranks. He left the insurance company in 2000 and took over Ace Limited in 2004. The company merged with Chubb in 2016, the largest M&A in the property and casualty insurance industry at the time. Today, Chubb is the largest commercial insurance provider in the United States, and the company is also known for its high-end homeowner insurance for the wealthy. However, about half of the company's premiums last year came from outside the United States. Asia has always been a growth area where the company is bullish: Although Asia accounts for 40% of global GDP, the insurance industry accounts for only 26% of the global insurance market share. This gap is expected to narrow over time. Greenberg sits on the board of several nonprofits that focus on international and Asian affairs. Barron's recently interviewed Greenberg about his underwriting philosophy, the challenges of dealing with increasingly frequent climate disasters, and US-China relations. Following are the edited excerpts of the conversation.

当每四年举行一次的美国总统大选到来时，政治不仅占据了新闻头条，也是美国股市的关注焦点，不过，大选最终结果对美国某些行业的影响要大于对整个股市（以$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$为代表）的影响。

政治因素有时会给成功的投资带来阻力，但投资者应该记住，无论谁赢得大选，股市通常都会上涨。Scharf Investments总裁布莱恩·克拉韦兹(Brian Krawez)说：“我不会因为担心特朗普或哈里斯会赢而躲起来，明天太阳依旧会升起，长期来看股票将是一个不错的选择。”

然而，个别行业需要单独来分析。特朗普和哈里斯的政策可能会给医疗保健、能源、银行和其他几个行业带来截然不同的影响，而且会以一些不那么显而易见的方式施加影响。以下是《巴伦周刊》对六个重要行业前景的分析，以及过去两届美国总统执政期间每个行业中股票表现的盘点。

• 汽车

During Trump's administration: rose by 9.9%

During Biden's administration: decreased by 8.4%

In 2024, there are hardly any winners in auto stocks.$Ford Motor (F.US)$Falling by 16%, Chrysler's parent company, Stellantis (STLAM), dropped 2%, with a year-to-date increase of 1%$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Also lagging behind the S&P 500 index by about 19 percentage points. $General Motors (GM.US)$ This year saw a 41% increase, making it the only winner among auto stocks, primarily due to its stable business and significant share buybacks.

The reasons for underperformance of auto stocks are not closely related to the election. Investors have been concerned about slowing growth in electric vehicle sales, declining prices of new cars, increasing incentives for car purchases, high inventory levels at dealerships, and slowing production growth. Regardless of who wins the White House, all these bearish factors will not disappear.

This does not mean that the election is unimportant. BofA Securities analyst John Murphy pointed out that a Harris victory may mean everything remains the same, with no major changes to emission policies or electric vehicle tax incentives. Conversely, Trump is likely to eliminate these incentives, leading to a slowdown in electric vehicle sales. In addition, Trump has threatened to increase tariffs, including imposing tariffs on products from Mexico, where many cars sold in the US are manufactured.

Trump's policies favor General Motors and Ford, both of which sell a large number of gasoline-powered cars, earning more from traditional cars than electric vehicles. Emmanuel Rosner, analyst at Wolfe Research, noted that a Trump victory particularly benefits Ford because the company has fewer manufacturing operations in Mexico compared to General Motors or Stellantis.

Rosner believes that regardless of the election outcome, Tesla could potentially be a big winner. If Harris wins, Tesla will continue to benefit from EV-friendly policies, but will not benefit from manufacturing operations in Mexico. If Trump wins, Musk may exert a certain influence within the Trump administration.

Regardless of what happens, investors should remember that factors determining the revenue of auto companies and the prices investors pay for their stocks go far beyond presidential politics.

• The company completed the 100% equity swap of Shihezi Guoneng Energy Investment Co., Ltd.'s wholly-owned subsidiary Manus County Kenswert Hydropower Co., Ltd. with the full equity of Xinjiang Tianfu Garbage Incineration Power Generation Co., Ltd. ("Garbage Power Generation") in November 2019. According to the equity swap agreement signed by both parties, the profits and losses generated by Garbage Power Generation after September 1, 2019 shall be owned by Guoneng Investment. Therefore, based on the power generation volume of Garbage Power Generation from January to August 2019, the actual renewable energy electricity price supplemental subsidy received was 1.7593 million yuan.

During Trump's presidency: declined by 40%

During Biden's presidency: up 105%

Investors are no strangers to how energy stocks will react to the election. Trump hopes to extract more oil in the United States, so if Trump wins, oil stocks may see a dramatic increase. If Harris wins, stocks of solar energy, wind energy, and electric car companies will get a boost.

However, some analysts believe that Trump's tariff policies will have a net negative impact on oil and gas. Oil is currently the largest export product of the United States. Trump's trade war in his first term led to retaliatory tariffs on American oil by China. This caused a temporary decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, followed by a rebound. However, another trade war could have a significant impact.

For fossil fuel investors, regardless of who wins, investors should remain cautious. Currently, there is an oversupply globally, with insufficient demand growth. In addition, regardless of the winner, U.S. production may increase, and if there are no major geopolitical escalations, oil prices are expected to remain relatively weak.

In terms of clean energy, Harris will be more supportive of clean energy companies because she will continue to implement the 'Inflation Reduction Act.' Trump has promised to repeal the act, which will impact over $200 billion invested in new factories producing clean energy products manufactured in the United States. If Congress is controlled by the Republican Party, a complete repeal of the act could also endanger nuclear energy, as the revival of nuclear energy depends on the subsidies in the act.

However, some analysts believe that the sentiment of clean energy investors is overly pessimistic, and investors should buy when stock prices are soft due to the election. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco is bullish on solar manufacturers$First Solar (FSLR.US)$ , wind developers$NextEra Energy (NEE.US)$ and $The AES Corp (AES.US)$ energy equipment manufacturers$GE Vernova (GEV.US)$ and fuel cell companies$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$.

• medical care

Up by 71% during Trump's presidency:

Up by 25% during Biden's presidency:

The results of the 2024 general election may have an impact on health insurance companies and hospital operators, especially those health insurance companies who have been deeply involved in Medicare Advantage over the past decade.

The stocks of these companies have been very poor this year. Due to patients' demand for medical services far exceeding the expectations of health insurance companies.$Humana (HUM.US)$And.$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$As a result, the company has faced tremendous pressure, in addition, the Biden administration has a very tough stance on insurance companies offering Medicare Advantage plans.

A Trump victory could alleviate the pressure on medical insurance companies, thereby boosting the shares of companies like Humana, which has dropped by over 40% this year.$CVS Health (CVS.US)$ UnitedHealth and Humana are also expected to receive a boost, as both companies are major participants in Medicare Advantage. Raymond James' medical policy analyst Chris Meekins said, 'If Trump wins, investors should hold stocks closely related to Medicare Advantage.'

For insurance companies deeply involved in the creation of the Affordable Care Act's health insurance market and hospitals providing treatment to customers, a Harris victory would be good news. Subsidies for individuals buying medical insurance through the health insurance marketplace are set to expire at the end of next year. Harris' campaign team hopes to make them permanent, while Trump's campaign team has hinted that he may not do so.

Continuing subsidies would be bullish.$Oscar Health (OSCR.US)$ and other health insurance companies, nearly all of the company's insurance plans are provided through the above-mentioned market, hospital operators.$Tenet Healthcare (THC.US)$And$HCA Healthcare (HCA.US)$ It will also receive a boost.

For pharmaceutical companies, the impact of the election results is more complex. Trump's victory may mean a more friendly merger atmosphere, paving the way for large pharmaceutical companies, especially biotechnology companies. However, regardless of who takes office in the White House, the high cost of branded prescription drugs--a longstanding political debate topic--is unlikely to change significantly.

• Industry

During Trump's administration: up 39%

During Biden's administration: up 51%

This year, the performance of manufacturing stocks in the industrial sector is good, with the manufacturing stocks in the Russell 1000 Index rising approximately 20% (excluding$Boeing (BA.US)$), on par with the S&P 500 Index. Large technology companies have invested billions of dollars in artificial intelligence data centers, which require electrification-related components, and the strong demand for aircraft and aircraft components has also benefited them.

The likelihood of a decline in demand for artificial intelligence and aircraft in 2025 is minimal. However, a Trump victory would mean that manufacturers will face significant resistance. Trump hopes to bring manufacturing back to the USA by increasing tariffs, and since his first term, with semiconductor companies, auto manufacturers, and battery manufacturers expanding production domestically, the number of jobs in US manufacturing has increased. This growth trend continued during Biden's term.

However, a trade war will pose challenges to the US manufacturing industry. China is a major customer of Boeing (BA), and if Trump imposes new tariffs on China, Boeing could become a target. Rob Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners, said, 'It's possible that China may never buy Boeing planes again.'

Furthermore, if Trump imposes tariffs on European manufacturers, Europe may retaliate by imposing tariffs on Boeing. Airbus (AIR) is less affected by the trade war because the company produces planes in Mobile, Alabama, and Boeing does not manufacture planes in Europe. Engine supplier General Aviation (GE) and other companies provide services to both Airbus and Boeing, so they should not be greatly affected.

In addition, the industrial sector as a whole is weak, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index being below 50 for 23 out of the past 24 months – a signal of industry contraction. Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in the association's October report, 'Demand remains weak, due to federal monetary policy... and the uncertainty of the election, businesses are reluctant to invest in capital and inventory.'

Manufacturers should be pleased to see this election and the accompanying uncertainty become a thing of the past.

• Regional banks

During Trump's presidency: declined by 1.5%

During Biden's presidency: increased by 11%

Most banks in the United States are not large. Among the 4,500 US banks tracked by regulatory agencies, 90% are community banks, with assets of less than $10 billion. They are spread across the United States, accounting for 60% of small business loans and $2.7 trillion in the $24 trillion US banking industry. Community banks and regional banks are important parts of the US financial services industry. The 2024 election results will have a significant impact on the financial services industry, especially concerning bank mergers and acquisitions and controversial customer fee rules known as 'junk fees' (hidden charges).

Dennis Kelleher, CEO of the non-profit advocacy organization Better Markets, said: 'I can say with certainty that the election will have a significant impact on regional banks and community banks.'

First, let's look at mergers and acquisitions. Three years ago, the Biden administration called on bank regulators to increase scrutiny. Although bank merger plans were not formally rejected, the approval process for these transactions has become significantly longer. Fitch Ratings analysts said, 'The time it takes has reached a point where the transactions are no longer feasible.'

Harris's victory is likely to mean continuation of the current situation, while Trump's victory could potentially shorten the approval process, as Trump has stated he will relax financial regulations and transaction review. Chris Senyek, a strategist at Wolfe Research, believes that if Trump is re-elected, Congress will either be divided or controlled by the Republicans, which could boost regional banks.

Smaller banks are also concerned about the regulation of 'junk fees'. Consumers are extremely dissatisfied with such hidden charges. Biden and other Democrats have 'condemned' accusations made by consumers. Maoyuan Chen, regional bank analyst at Morningstar, said: 'This means regional banks may show more support for the Republicans from this perspective.'

But Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets believes that the Democratic Party will create a better environment for small banks, especially compared to their large competitors. He said: "Trump supports big banks, especially Wall Street banks. His proposed deregulation and other policies are very dangerous and will create an unfair competitive environment for regional and community banks."

The right and wrong are left to the market to determine.

• Technology

During Trump's term: up 177%

During Biden's term: up 95%

For years, the technology industry has always been the focus of regulatory agencies. During Lena Khan's tenure as chair of the Federal Trade Commission, most of the time was spent on competition issues in the technology industry, which is a very complex issue and not always ruled by existing laws. The U.S. Department of Justice has also targeted key players in the technology industry. Recently, a U.S. federal court ruled that Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL), has an illegal monopoly in the internet search field.

Dave Smith, Executive Vice President and Technology Investment Director at investment management company Bailard, said:" The threat posed by anti-monopoly regulation does increase uncertainty for a stock or a company. We believe this may limit their valuation growth."

This situation may change. Khan appointed by Biden cannot guarantee a return. Harris said during the campaign that she will seek to balance competition and innovation through a "new path of forward" strategy that will "encourage innovation technologies such as AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors." Trump said during the campaign that his government will "cut costly and burdensome regulatory requirements." Both related campaign documents did not provide specific details on antitrust policies in the technology industry.

In recent years, the semiconductor industry has become a focus of attention for US congressmen. In 2022, the US Congress passed the bipartisan 'Chip Act,' and the Biden administration also focused on national security and strengthening US competitiveness by restricting chip exports to China. The calls to enhance US chip product capabilities have received bipartisan support.

Chris Miller, the author of 'Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,' said, 'During their presidencies, both Trump and Biden introduced similar policies targeting the chip industry. I expect the next president to do the same.'

Editor / jayden