This week's important schedule overview

• Trump's showdown with Harris! The results of the US election will be revealed, who will finally emerge victorious?

November 5th will be the voting day for the 2024 US presidential election. US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris will face off against former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump in the final showdown. If Harris wins the election, she will become the first female president in US history. If Trump wins the election, he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in the 1890s to be re-elected non-consecutively.

Currently, many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. A survey by Forbes shows that Harris is only narrowly ahead of Trump by a 1% margin. Betting websites are favoring Trump, although there has been a slight retreat in recent days. Analysts believe that the deciding factor will likely be a few swing states, and the winner will be able to reshape US trade policies—especially if Trump wins, there could be a significant change in global trade dynamics.

The current market generally believes that, given Trump's current stance, he supports traditional energy, infrastructure construction policies; while if Harris takes office, she tends to welfare policies, marijuana legalization, green energy, USA export growth, housing support, etc. It is worth noting that market views believe that whether it is Trump or Harris taking office, it is bullish for cryptos and gold.

Citic Securities stated that the election results are expected to be fairly clear as early as noon on the 6th Beijing time, but if the results in some states are too close or delayed, the time it takes to determine the outcome may be prolonged.

• Will the Federal Reserve hold an interest rate meeting, with a possible 25 basis point rate cut looming?

In the early hours of Friday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting and announce its rate decision. According to the Fed Watch page of the CME Group, after the release of the October employment report in the United States, the market expects a 99.7% surge in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November 7 meeting. Recent employment reports indicate that the labor market is still transitioning down from the overheated levels of a few years ago, supporting Federal Reserve officials to continue lowering the restrictive rates implemented to contain inflation.

Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve's probability of further rate cuts by another 25 basis points at the December 18 meeting is 82%, higher than the previous 75%. Traders are closely following the expectation that policymakers will cut rates by 25 basis points in both November and December, pricing in a total rate cut of 44 basis points by year-end. However, they believe that by the end of January next year, the cumulative easing will be less than 60 basis points, indicating officials may still pause the easing policy early next year.

• The 12th meeting of the 14th NPC Standing Committee will be held, marking a 'key window' for the implementation of incremental policies.

The 12th meeting of the 14th National People’s Congress Standing Committee will be held from November 4th to 8th, with the published agenda including the review of the State Council's report on the financial work status.

The upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting is highly anticipated. Prior to this meeting, the Ministry of Finance had announced during a press conference that it will introduce a package of incremental policies, including a plan to replace a large scale of local government outstanding implicit debts with a one-time significant increase in the debt ceiling, intensifying support to help local areas resolve debt risks. The related policies will be comprehensively explained to the public after completing the legal procedures.

Following the Ministry of Finance's announcement of the plan to replace a large scale of local government outstanding implicit debts with a one-time significant increase in the debt ceiling, many localities are actively seeking this implicit debt replacement quota to alleviate the pressure of local government debt risk resolution.

However, increasing the debt ceiling requires approval from the National People’s Congress Standing Committee. It is expected by the public that the relevant matters will be announced at the 12th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee to be held from November 4th to 8th.

• 澳洲联储、英国央行等接连登场，将公布利率决议

本周，除美联储将举行议息会议外，澳大利亚、加拿大、英国等国的中央银行也将公布利率决议。

据路透此前调查显示，英国央行将于11月7日将指标利率下调25个基点，至4.75%，但近三分之二的经济学家预计英国央行将在12月按兵不动，这表明央行将坚持谨慎行事的态度。英国9月通胀率从2.2%跌至1.7%的三年低点，低于英国央行2%的目标。这为货币政策委员会（MPC）降息留出了空间，该委员会在8月以微弱多数决定降息，启动宽松周期，但于9 月暂停行动。

此外，路透调查显示，受访的30位经济学家全部预计，澳洲联储11月5日将维持利率在4.35%不变，因为在截至9月份的三个月里，消费者通胀率持续走高，这坚定了政策制定者在转向之前必须等待的看法。调查还显示，澳洲联储2025年第一季将降息25个基点至4.10%，到2025年底将降息至3.60%。

• Super Micro Computer, which has been experiencing continuous turmoil recently, will announce its performance, with Qualcomm, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, and others releasing their results.

财报方面，近期深陷财务造假风波的 $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ 将于美国当地时间11月5日盘后发布最新季度的财报。此前，超微电脑披露负责会计事务的安永会计师事务所（Ernst & Young） 辞职，因与其在治理和董事会独立性方面存在数月分歧，目前正在另觅新的独立注册会计师事务所合作。天风国际分析师郭明錤对此分析称，从过往经验看，审计/会计辞任是很严重的事，该股迎停牌或退市的“最坏结果”的可能性越来越高。

In addition, the Q3 earnings season of US stocks remains busy, with technology giants such as semiconductor manufacturers $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ as well as the developer of the "weight-loss miracle drug" Simeprevir. $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ On the Hong Kong stock market front, the domestic semiconductor manufacturing leader $SMIC (00981.HK)$ The results will be released this week.

• China's October CPI and PPI data will be released.

On Saturday (November 9th), the National Bureau of Statistics will release the October CPI and PPI data. Data released last month showed that China's September CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% with a flat month-on-month change; PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, a 0.6% month-on-month decrease, narrowing from the previous -0.7%.

Caitong Securities believes that in October, the monthly wholesale prices of meat, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all declined slightly, although the drag from fuel prices weakened compared to September. In addition, the Golden Week holiday and the recent trend of staggered travel have boosted hotel and air ticket prices. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in October will remain stable at around 0.4%.

Golden Credit Fixed Income believes that looking at the fourth quarter, in terms of PPI, with the background of the new round of macro policy stimulus, market expectations for the macro economy have improved, and industrial prices have rebounded to some extent. However, considering the slow recovery of real estate, we expect the rebound space of industrial prices to be relatively limited; in terms of CPI, it will take a long time for the stimulus policy to transmit to the residential end, and the short-term insufficient household income may continue to drag down core inflation. Food prices may gradually weaken the support for inflation, and we expect prices at the consumer end to remain low.

• North America has started daylight saving time, extending Tokyo Stock Exchange trading hours by half an hour.

North America beginning daylight saving time, trading hours in US and Canadian financial markets (gold, silver, U.S. oil, U.S. stocks, etc.) and economic data release times will be delayed by one hour compared to daylight saving time.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange will extend stock trading hours to a total of 5.5 hours starting from November 5th. The closing time is delayed by 30 minutes to 3:30 p.m. This is the first time since 1954, after 70 years, that the exchange has extended trading hours. This move aims to increase the likelihood of resuming trading after a system failure, and also to provide a more accessible environment for overseas investors.

The revised trading hours are from 9:00 am to 11:30 am local time for the morning session, followed by a 1-hour lunch break, and then the afternoon session from 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm. Compared to the trading hours of major overseas markets, the total of 5.5 hours is equivalent to Hong Kong, but still shorter than New York's 6.5 hours and London's 8.5 hours.

This week's key performance calendar

November 4, Monday

Keywords: US September factory orders monthly rate, Japanese stock market holiday

On Monday, in terms of economic data, US September factory orders monthly rate, Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index, and other data will be released.

In terms of performance, in the Hong Kong stock market $YUM CHINA (09987.HK)$ the latest performance will be released, and in the US stock market $Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$ and other companies will also be releasing their financial reports.

In terms of new stocks, in the U.S. stock market, $Creative Global Technology Holdings Limited (CGTH.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Heritage Distilling Holding Company, Inc (CASK.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Health in Tech (HIT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Park Ha Biological Technology Co. Ltd. (PHH.US)$ Will be listed.

In addition, the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan will be closed for Culture Day.

November 5th, Tuesday

Keywords: Super Micro Computer Financial Report, China Caixin Services PMI, USA Presidential Election Voting Day

On Tuesday, economic data including China Caixin Services PMI, US September Trade Balance, US October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and other data will be released.

In terms of performance, in the Japanese stock market $Nintendo (7974.JP)$ the latest performance will be released, and in the US stock market $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$and$Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)$The financial report will be announced after the market closes.

In terms of financial events, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; the United States will have the presidential election voting day.

Wednesday, November 6th

Keywords: novo-nordisk/qualcomm/amc entertainment financial report, final value of October s&p global services PMI in the USA

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the USA will announce a series of data including the final value of October s&p global services PMI, global supply chain pressure index for October, EIA crude oil inventories for the week of November 1st; the Eurozone will release the final value of October services PMI, September PPI monthly rate, and other data.

In terms of performance, in the Hong Kong stock market $AUTOHOME-S (02518.HK)$ Will release the latest performance, in the Japanese stock market. $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$ Will announce financial reports, in the American stock market. $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ and other companies will also be releasing their financial reports.

In terms of financial events, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced a new season debt issuance plan; the Bank of Canada released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

Thursday, November 7

Key Words: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation financial report, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week, Bank of England interest rate decision

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the U.S. will release data such as the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2, and the U.S. September wholesale sales monthly rate; the Eurozone will release the September retail sales monthly rate.

In terms of performance, in the Hong Kong stock market $SMIC (00981.HK)$ the latest performance will be released, and in the US stock market $Unity Software (U.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Duke Energy (DUK.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR.US)$ and other companies will also be releasing their financial reports.

In terms of financial events, the Bank of England announced the interest rate decision and meeting minutes.

Friday, November 8th

Keywords: FOMC interest rate decision, University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision. The United States will release data on the expected inflation rate for November, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for November, and other data.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference after the interest rate decision.

In terms of performance, in the Japanese stock market $Sony Group (6758.JP)$ the latest performance will be released, and in the US stock market $EOG Resources (EOG.US)$ Will announce the financial report.

In terms of new shares, Hong Kong new shares $AUGROUP (02519.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$APT ELECTRONICS (02551.HK)$ Will be listed.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor / jayden