公司控股子公司兆讯传媒3Q24 实现营收1.84 亿元（yoy+3.35%，qoq+28.13%），主要系暑假为高铁运输旺季，业务相应增长；归母净利0.26亿元（yoy-49.07%，qoq+958.27%），主要系毛利率维持上半年承压趋势，同比-9.02pp。兆讯传媒2024 年前三季度营收同增16.59%，主因：1）新开拓的户外3D 大屏业务贡献营收；2）高铁媒体业务营收因点位增加而增长。但综合毛利率33.53%，同比-10.61pp，主因高铁媒体业务新增点位，成本端先行，营收端因招商需要时间等原因而滞后，从而有所下降。Lianmei Holdings announced third-quarter results: Q3 revenue of 0.348 billion yuan, +5.1% year over year; net profit to mother of 0.031 billion yuan, -47.7% YoY, lower than our expectations (0.56 to 0.062 billion yuan), mainly due to receiving coal fuel subsidies in the same period last year and increased resource costs for the current issue of Zhaoxun Media's high-speed rail media and outdoor naked eye 3D media. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.298 billion yuan, +5.2% year on year; net profit due to mother 0.508 billion yuan, or -22.2% year on year; after deducting non-net profit of 0.504 billion yuan, -19.7% year over year. Considering the future development of the outdoor naked eye 3D high-definition large-screen media business, there is potential for growth, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Q3 gross margin was +1.09pp year on year, increasing off-season coal hoarding efforts to increase the profitability of the heating business Q3 company's gross margin was +1.09pp to 11.95% year over year, but net interest rate was -12.06pp to 9.85% year over year, mainly due to receiving coal combustion subsidies in the same period last year. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company's inventory balance was 0.533 billion yuan, or +82.92%. This is mainly due to the company reducing coal-burning costs in order to better provide heating services and increasing coal reserves during the off-season. We believe that as Q4 enters the heating season, the company's heating business may benefit from low-cost fuels and increase profitability.
Zhaoxun Media's Q3 revenue increased slightly year-on-year, and gross margin was still under pressure
Zhaoxun Media 3Q24, a holding subsidiary of the company, achieved revenue of 0.184 billion yuan (yoy +3.35%, qoq +28.13%), mainly due to summer vacation being the peak season for high-speed rail transportation, and corresponding business growth; net profit to mother of 0.026 billion yuan (yoy -49.07%, qoq +958.27%), mainly due to gross margin maintaining the pressure trend in the first half of the year, -9.02pp year on year. Zhaoxun Media's revenue also increased 16.59% in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to: 1) the newly developed outdoor 3D large screen business contributed to revenue; 2) the high-speed rail media business revenue increased due to the increase in location. However, the overall gross profit margin was 33.53%, or 10.61pp. The decline was mainly due to the addition of new positions in the high-speed rail media business, where the cost side came first, and the revenue side lagged behind due to reasons such as investment promotion time.
Target price is $7.00, maintaining a “buy” rating
Considering the pressure on the gross margin of Zhaoxun Media and lowering the gross profit margin of the company's high-speed rail digital media business, we expect the company's net profit to be 0.775/0.863/0.983 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (previous value: 0.843/0.947/1.072 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.34/0.38/0.43 yuan. Comparatively, the company's 2025 Wind unanimously anticipated an average PE value of 11.6 times. Considering that the future development of the outdoor naked eye 3D high-definition large-screen media business still has potential for growth, the company was given a target PE of 18.6x in 2025, with a target price of 7.00 yuan (previous value 6.26 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The growth rate of the connected area fell short of expectations, the decline in coal prices fell short of expectations, and the growth of the advertising business fell short of expectations.
