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纽约汇市:美元上涨 波动率随美国大选临近而飙升

New York Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar rises, and volatility soars as the US election approaches.

Global market report ·  Nov 2 04:26

The US dollar hit an intraday high on Friday afternoon, as traders shifted their focus from weak employment reports to next week's US election. The Canadian dollar hit its lowest level in two years.

The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose by 0.3%, briefly falling by 0.2%; the early session of the US October nonfarm payroll report showed that under the impact of hurricanes and strikes, business hiring slowed to the slowest pace since 2020, causing the index to drop as expected.

Monex forex trader Helen Given said, "Traders were aware in advance that the data would skew negative and are handling it appropriately."

"This is one of the most difficult nonfarm payroll data to predict," said Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy for Mizuho Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, "The hurricanes and strikes have led to an overall slowdown in growth."

"The Fed will carefully study this data, considering the US election results are much more important, I doubt they will change their tone," he said.

Investors are flocking to the US dollar for safety ahead of the election. Following the best single-month performance in October in two years, the dollar continues to rise.

Prices for hedging US dollar volatility rose to their highest level since April 2020, when the financial markets were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. An indicator measuring the implied volatility of the US dollar index over a one-period cycle continues to soar on the eve of the election.

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The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on November 7; at that time, the vote counting for the US election may still be ongoing.

The USD/CAD rose 0.1% to 1.3955, the highest level since October 2022.

The GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2930.

The intense sell-off of UK government bonds weakened on Friday.

Option market pricing shows that traders' bearishness on the British Pound for the next month is the highest since March 2023.

The EUR/USD rose 0.4% this week.

The USD/JPY rose 0.6% to 152.91; the Yen is one of the worst-performing currencies among G-10 currencies, followed by the Swiss Franc and the Swedish Krona.

The USD/CHF rose 0.7% to 0.8705.

Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed down, thereby strengthening the reasons for further interest rate cuts.

Note: Some of the above information comes from an anonymous forex trader who is familiar with the trading situation but is unwilling to be named due to lack of public comment authorization.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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