2024Q1-Q3 公司毛利率为23.0%，同比-23.0pct，净利率6.0%，同比-21.9pct；期间费用率为18.0%，同比+3.2pct，其中销售费用率为2.2%，同比+0.1pct，管理费用率（含研发）为15.0%，同比+2.6pct，财务费用率为0.8%，同比+0.4pct。Q3单季毛利率为12.2%，同比-32.6pct，环比-6.8pct；净利率-8.6%，同比-35.7pct，环比-13.6pct；期间费用率为23.9%，同比+9.5pct，环比-9.3pct。occurrences
2024Q1-Q3's revenue was 3.43 billion yuan, -18% YoY, net profit 0.21 billion yuan, YoY -82%, net profit not attributable to mother 0.16 billion yuan, -86% YoY; 2024Q3 single-quarter revenue 0.79 billion yuan, YoY -36%, net profit attributable to mother -0.07 billion yuan, YoY -0.07 billion yuan, YoY -210%, net profit not attributable to mother -0.08 billion yuan, YoY- 118%, -257% month-on-month.
Silicon wafer prices may bottom out, waiting for industry profits to recover
2024Q1-Q3's gross margin was 23.0%, -23.0 pct year on year, net profit margin 6.0%, year on year -21.9 pct; the cost ratio for the period was 18.0%, +3.2pct year on year, of which the sales expenses ratio was 2.2%, +0.1 pct year on year, management expenses ratio (including R&D) was 15.0%, +2.6 pct year on year, and the financial expenses ratio was 0.8%, +0.4 pct year on year. Q3 gross margin for a single quarter was 12.2%, -32.6pct year on year, -6.8pct; net profit margin -8.6%, 35.7pct yoy, -13.6pct month-on-month; the cost ratio for the period was 23.9%, +9.5pct yoy and -9.3pct month-on-month.
Inventory & contract liabilities declined with beta. Net operating cash flow was -0.91 billion yuan in 2024Q1-Q3 due to a month-on-month improvement in operating quality, -243% over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in the scale of settlement of purchase payment notes at maturity. As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's inventory was 1.02 billion yuan, -45% year over year, and contract debt was 0.41 billion yuan, or -46% year over year. We believe this was mainly due to the slowdown in silicon wafer expansion.
Shipments of tungsten diamond wire have increased, and innovative business has achieved continuous signing.
In the third quarter of 2024, the company shipped about 18 million kilometers of diamond wire, of which tungsten wire accounted for about 48%, and the competitiveness and market share of diamond wire products continued to increase; silicon wafers and cutting processing services were shipped about 8.5 GW, and the cost advantage of specialized silicon wafer manufacturing was obvious; and innovative business and new products achieved continuous signing. The photovoltaic industry is still in the process of deep adjustment. The company continues to improve its core competitiveness through research and development, and profits are expected to gradually recover.
We are optimistic that future silicon wafer price restoration will benefit foundry. Tungsten wire is expected to accelerate penetration The company's performance will be under pressure for a short time due to the downturn in the photovoltaic industry, but we are optimistic that future silicon wafer price restoration will benefit the company's OEM slicing business & accelerated penetration of tungsten wire. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 4.66/5.25/6.16 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -25%/+13%/+17%, respectively; realized net profit to mother of 1.0.9/0.54/0.79 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -87%/+186%/+47%, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream production expansion falls short of expectations, and new product expansion falls short of expectations