公司根据市场变化策略性调整出货，2024 年1-9 月实现硅片出货82.80GW（其中对外销售35.03GW），同比下降 4.22%，单晶电池对外销售4.16GW，组件出货量51.23GW（其中BC 组件销量 13.77GW），同比增长17.70%。24Q3公司亏损环比收窄，24Q3 公司毛利率为8.60%，环比提升1.99pct；24Q3 公司计提资产减值损失7.74 亿元，环比大幅收窄，主要因产业链价格波动趋缓。Event: On October 30, 2024, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 58.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -37.73%; realized net profit to mother of -6.505 billion yuan, or -155.62% year-on-year; realized deducted non-net profit of -6.488 billion yuan, or -156.35% year-on-year.
24Q3 achieved revenue of 20.064 billion yuan, -31.87% YoY, -3.79%; realized net profit to mother of -1.261 billion yuan, -150.14% YoY, +56.40% month-on-month; realized deducted non-net profit of -1.212 billion yuan, -149.37% YoY, +57.60% month-on-month, and losses narrowed month-on-month.
Profits were under phased pressure, and 24Q3 losses narrowed month-on-month. Since 2024, due to the continuing impact of the mismatch between supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, the prices of all photovoltaic products have dropped sharply, and the company experienced phased operating performance losses.
The company strategically adjusted shipments according to market changes. From January to September 2024, silicon wafer shipments were 82.80 GW (including external sales of 35.03 GW), a year-on-year decrease of 4.22%, monocrystalline batteries sold 4.16 GW, and module shipments were 51.23 GW (including BC module sales volume 13.77 GW), an increase of 17.70% year-on-year. The losses of 24Q3 companies narrowed month-on-month. 24Q3 companies' gross margin was 8.60%, up 1.99 pcts month-on-month; 24Q3 companies accrued asset impairment losses of 0.774 billion yuan, which narrowed sharply month-on-month, mainly due to slowing price fluctuations in the industrial chain.
Determining the leading position of BC technology, the advantages of HPBC 2.0 products are highlighted. The company has firmly established a leading position in BC technology and achieved a major breakthrough in high-efficiency HPBC 2.0 technology. Based on high-quality Terry silicon wafers and HPBC 2.0 battery technology, the company has successively launched centralized Hi-MO 9 components and distributed Hi-Mo X10 module products. The component mass production efficiency is up to 24.8%. It is the product with the highest mass production efficiency in the entire industry, and is far ahead of the industry in terms of overall technical performance such as power generation performance and reliability. At present, BC components have been included in domestic high-capacity procurement tenders. The efficient and reliable value of the company's HPBC 2.0 products is highlighted, and the scenario product matrix is constantly being improved. The company will steadily promote HPBC second-generation production capacity construction, increase market development efforts, and promote a rapid increase in the BC product market penetration rate.
The construction of BC production capacity has been steadily promoted, and the US component plant has been put into operation. By the end of '23, the company's own silicon wafer production capacity had reached 170 GW, battery production capacity had reached 80 GW, and module production capacity had reached 120 GW. As BC second-generation projects such as Xixian Phase I 12.5GW batteries and Tongchuan 12GW batteries advance, HPBC 2.0 products will be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024. It is expected that the company's BC production capacity will reach 70 GW by the end of 2025 (of which HPBC 2.0 production capacity is about 50 GW), and all domestic battery bases plan to migrate to BC products by the end of 2026. 2024H1, the company has achieved smooth customs clearance of shipments in North America, and the US 5GW component factory has officially been put into operation, forming strong support for business development in North America.
Investment advice: We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 80.493/115.792/142.642 billion yuan, net profit to mother of -7.582/5.404/8.243 billion yuan, based on the closing price on November 1. The corresponding PE for 25-26 will be 27X/17X. The company will insist on differentiated competition, continue to upgrade and iterate products, deepen the global production capacity layout, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, industrial chain price reduction causes impairment losses, etc.