主品牌稳健增长，索康尼增长亮眼。特步Q3 全渠道流水中单增长，线下客流&连带等多指标均有所拖累。月度趋势来看预计7-9 月均有所承压，但10 月换季等影响催化流水恢复增长，预计Q4 低库存压力下有望轻装上阵。索康尼Q3 流水同比增长50%+，预计全年高增可期。Description of the event
The company released retail data for 2024Q3. The sales volume of the main brand of Special Step increased in the number of units over the same period last year, and the sales volume of Sokoni increased by more than 50% year on year. The sales performance was in line with expectations.
Incident comments
The main brand is growing steadily, and Sauconi's growth is impressive. The increase in orders in the Q3 omni-channel traffic, and various indicators such as offline passenger flow & connections have all been dragged down. Looking at monthly trends, it is expected that there will be some pressure in July-September, but the October season change and the like will affect the resumption of catalytic flow growth. It is expected that Q4 will be lightweight under low inventory pressure. Sokoni Q3 turnover increased by 50% + year over year, and high growth is expected throughout the year.
Inventory remains healthy, and discount levels lead the industry. The Q3 inventory sales ratio for the main brand of XTEP was ~ 4 months, and remained at a healthy level compared to 2024Q2. The 25% discount was basically a healthy level, and the overall discount & inventory level remained steady and leading the industry.
Looking forward to the future, the company's inventory & discounts are at a healthy level. Q4 is lightweight, and the good consumption trend in October is expected to continue. Professional sports brands such as Sokony will continue to increase and contribute to performance. Although short-term consumption is still under pressure, considering KP divestment to increase performance, we expect the net profit to be 12.7, 14.6, and 1.62 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, up 24%/15%/11% year-on-year, up 24%/15%/11% year-on-year, corresponding PE at the current price of 11/10/9 times, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Retail recovery falls short of expectations;
2. The development of other brands falls short of expectations;
3. The KP divestment progress falls short of the expected risk.
