投资建议：厦门银行自2023 年起主动放缓规模增速、深度优化资负结构，提高经营质效。24Q3 末总资产规模较年初增长3.2%，突破4000 亿关卡，且不良率保持上市银行中较低水平。公司拟进行中期分红，分红率为24H1 归母净利润的32.62%，较2023 年分红率提升1.9pct。根据三季报表现及降息后未来存贷款重定价情况，调整公司2024-2026 年净利润增速预测为-5.6%、0.3%、1.8%(新增)，对应BVPS为9.71(-0.13)、10.30(-0.39)、10.91(新增)元/股。考虑到稳经济政策密集出台，利好银行风险缓释和信贷需求恢复，推动板块估值回升，上调目标价至6.05 元，对应2024 年0.62 倍PB，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The revenue growth rate reported by the Bank of Xiamen for the 2024 third quarter was in line with expectations. The net profit growth rate improved markedly compared to the interim report, further optimized the asset burden structure, and maintained stable asset quality indicators. The target price was raised to 6.05 yuan, and the increase in holdings rating was maintained.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Starting in 2023, the Bank of Xiamen will take the initiative to slow down large-scale growth, deeply optimize the capital burden structure, and improve the quality and efficiency of operations. The total asset size at the end of 24Q3 increased by 3.2% compared to the beginning of the year, breaking through the 400 billion mark, and the non-performing rate remained low among listed banks. The company plans to pay an interim dividend. The dividend rate is 32.62% of 24H1's net profit to mother, which is 1.9 pct higher than the 2023 dividend rate. Based on the performance of the three quarterly reports and the repricing of future deposits and loans after interest rate cuts, the adjusted net profit growth forecast for 2024-2026 is -5.6%, 0.3%, and 1.8% (increase). The corresponding BVPS is 9.71 (-0.13), 10.30 (-0.39), and 10.91 (new) yuan/share. Considering the intensive introduction of economic stabilization policies, it is beneficial to bank risk mitigation and credit demand recovery, and boosts sector valuations. The target price was raised to 6.05 yuan, corresponding to 0.62 times PB in 2024, and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
The 24Q3 revenue growth rate was in line with expectations, and the net profit growth rate fluctuated greatly between quarters. 24Q3 revenue fell 5% year on year. The decline was higher than the mid-report, mainly due to the shocks in the Q3 bond market and the slowdown in the growth rate of other non-interest income, and the marginal weakening of the contribution to revenue. Net interest revenue accounted for 77% of the company's revenue, down 8.4% year on year in 24Q3, which is basically the same as Q2. Among them, the marginal growth rate of scale slowed by 1.4 pct to 8.0%, but the year-on-year decline in net interest spread narrowed to 20 bps under the estimate. On the cost side, the company made strong impairment calculations in the first half of the year, exceeding the cumulative value for the first three quarters of 2023. The net profit to mother increased 13.4% year-on-year due to a slight correction in the 24Q3 period, and the impairment calculation was -0.005 billion. Looking ahead to the whole year, it is expected that there will still be major challenges in improving the growth rate of revenue and net profit, or maintaining a small negative single-digit increase.
Total assets in 24Q3 increased slightly by 1.2% compared to mid-year, but loan balances fell 3.4% month-on-month, down 7.2 billion yuan, and decreased by 1.7% and 3.6 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. Mainly because retail credit continues to be sluggish, balances are still declining quarterly, and the company's optimized structure actively reduced bill discounts by 5.9 billion yuan. The deposit side continued its steady growth trend in Q2, adding 8 billion yuan in a single quarter. At the end of the period, it increased 2.8% from the beginning of the year, accounting for the same ratio of debt as 58.6%.
The non-performing rate remains low in the industry, but the attention rate is rising rapidly and there is still uncertainty. At the end of 24Q3, the company achieved a double drop in bad performance. The defect rate decreased by 1 bps to 0.75% compared to the end of Q2, but the attention rate rose 65 bps to 2.92% at the end of Q2. It has been rising significantly for five consecutive quarters, and there is some uncertainty about future bad generation. The provision coverage rate at the end of 24Q3 decreased by 6pct to 390% compared to Q2, and the probability of follow-up was further reduced, but the short-term risk resilience is safe.
Risk warning: Credit risk exposure exceeded expectations, and the downward pace of interest spreads exceeded expectations.
