维持增持。2024年航空供需恢复中，且行业收益策略变化，公司Q3业绩表现略低于预期。预计未来供需将继续恢复，且航司收益策略有望积极改变，公司高品质航网将展现超预期弹性。维持2024-26 年净利预测14/22/29 亿元。维持目标价21.81 元。建议淡季逆向布局。Introduction to this report:
Changes in the industry's revenue strategy affected the company's third-quarter results. It is expected that supply and demand will continue to recover in the future, and the revenue strategy is expected to change positively. The company's high-quality aviation network will show profit elasticity that exceeds expectations. A reverse layout is recommended during the off-season.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. Due to the recovery in aviation supply and demand in 2024 and changes in the industry's revenue strategy, the company's Q3 performance was slightly lower than expected. It is expected that supply and demand will continue to recover in the future, and the airline's revenue strategy is expected to change positively. The company's high-quality airline network will show flexibility beyond expectations. Maintain the 2024-26 net profit forecast of 1.4/2.2/2.9 billion. Maintain the target price of $21.81. A reverse layout is recommended during the off-season.
2024Q3 performance declined year over year, affected by changes in the industry's revenue strategy. The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.27 billion yuan, up 12% year on year; of these, Q3 profit was 0.78 billion yuan, down 27% from the 2023Q3 historical record and up 19% from 2019. 1) Fleet turnover returns to the lead. The 2024Q3 ASK increased 13% year over year, up 40% from Q3 2019. In line with the increase in the number of static seats in the fleet, the impact of flight maintenance was limited. 2) Falling ticket prices dragged down performance.
The 2024Q3 passenger occupancy rate decreased slightly by 0.6% year on year, and revenue per unit of RPK fell by more than 10% year on year, down 4.5% from 2019 Q3. It was partly due to the increase in intercontinental routes and the return of international fares, and was also affected by the shift in Air's revenue strategy from 2023 fare priority to passenger occupancy priority in 2024.
The domestic high-quality aviation network continues to be optimized, and the future will show profit elasticity that exceeds expectations. The company has a deep understanding of the value of time, and has long focused on “good wharves” to build a high-quality aviation network. During the epidemic, three- and fourth-line subsidized routes were added in the short term to improve turnover. After the epidemic, seize the opportunities of mainline airports at regular intervals, give full play to the advantages of main base airlines, and continue to actively optimize the quality of the air network. Analysis of the domestic schedule for the 2024 winter season. Compared with the 2019 winter season: 1) Time perspective: In the past five years, Jixiang and Jiuyuan domestic time increased by 24%. Among them, the three major bases in Shanghai/Nanjing/Guangzhou still account for more than 60% of the time, a slight decrease of 2%. 2) Flight perspective: Mainly coordinating airport-related flight plans still account for more than 80%. Among them, the share of flight plans between main coordination airports increased by 4% to 36%.
The international community is actively cultivating intercontinental routes, and the long-term prospects for the international strategy are optimistic. The company currently has 8 B787s, and is expected to operate 10 to form large-scale operations in 2025. The market continues to worry about wide-body aircraft operations. We believe that the long-term prospects will be better than expected if this model is economical and the company's international strategic plan is clear, in line with the construction of an international hub in Shanghai. Before the epidemic, selected Helsinki joint ventures and refined controls estimated only a small loss; during the epidemic, passenger tickets were expensive and the profits were high; after the epidemic, Milan/Athens/Manchester/Brussels etc. were launched one after another, and new direct flights from Shanghai to Melbourne and Sydney will be launched during the new season, and turnover is expected to continue to increase. International ticket prices will gradually return from high levels in 2024, and the company's ability to operate wide-body aircraft will gradually be reflected in the future.
Risk warning. Economic fluctuations, oil prices and exchange rates, industry policies, growth and dilution, safety incidents.
