收益水平下滑，单位成本改善。收益端：估算Q3 公司客公里收益同比-15%，座公里收益同比-9%，与今年行业价格趋势基本一致，主要由于2023 年作为出行恢复的第一年，国内旅客需求集中爆发，且供给处于恢复过程中，供需共同推动国内票价走高，对于今年形成高基数；此外，国际票价随着国际线修复逐步回落至疫情前正常水平。成本端：Q3 单位ASK 成本同比-4%，较19Q3+11%，估算Q3 单位扣油成本同比-4%，我们认为主要是受益于今年公司客座率及飞机利用率提升。China Southern Airlines announced 2024Q3 results, with declining revenue levels and year-on-year improvement in unit costs.
Q3 profit declined year over year. 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 49.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and realized net profit of 3.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%, after deducting non-return net profit of 2.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue was 134.66 billion yuan, up 12.7% year on year, and net profit to mother was 1.97 billion yuan, up 48.9% year on year.
Passenger occupancy rates were quickly fixed year over year. In terms of operating data, 2024Q3:1) The company's ASK/RPK increased by +11.4%/18.7%, respectively, and the passenger occupancy rate increased 5.3 percentage points to 85.5% year over year, exceeding the same period before the epidemic, reaching a record high; 2) domestic ASK/RPK increased +1.5%/9.3% year over year, and domestic passenger occupancy rate increased 6 percentage points year over year to 85.7% year on year; 3) international ASK/RPK increased 1 percentage point year on year to 85.0% year on year.
Revenue levels have declined, and unit costs have improved. Revenue side: The estimated Q3 company's passenger kilometer revenue was -15%, and seat-kilometer revenue was basically in line with this year's industry price trend, mainly due to the concentrated explosion of domestic passenger demand in 2023 as the first year of travel recovery, and supply is in the process of recovery. Supply and demand are jointly driving up domestic fares, forming a high base for this year; in addition, international fares gradually fell back to normal levels before the pandemic with the restoration of international flights. Cost side: The cost per unit of ASK in Q3 is -4%, compared to 19Q3 +11%. We estimate that the cost of withholding fuel per unit in Q3 is -4%. We think it mainly benefits from the increase in the company's passenger occupancy rate and aircraft utilization rate this year.
Profit margins have declined, and financial expense ratios have declined. The company's gross margin fell 1.8 percentage points to 15.4% year on year, the management+sales+R&D expenses ratio remained flat at 6.1% year on year, the financial expenses ratio fell 0.5 percentage points to 1.9% year on year (the Q3 RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate about 1.7% month-on-month), and net profit margin to mother fell 2.4 percentage points year on year to 6.4% year on year.
Operating at the North and South hubs, it is expected to benefit from a broad market space in the long term. Considering that the fourth quarter was an off-season for aviation, with significant year-on-year loss reduction, we expect the company's net profit to be -0.5/3.6/8.2 billion yuan in 2024-26, respectively, to maintain an “increase in holdings” rating. In the long run, we believe that the company's north-south base layout and a relatively complete national network are expected to enable the company to benefit from long-term growth in aviation demand and the expansion of main base airports.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; demand falling short of expectations; sharp rise in oil prices; sharp depreciation of RMB.
