2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入780.09 亿元，同比+2.88%；毛利率为9.95%，同比-8.3pct；归母净利润为26.01 亿元，同比-31.00%。三季度单季度实现营业收入267.37 亿元，同比+9.64%；毛利率为6.05%，同比-16.4pct；归母净利润为11.83 亿元，同比-26.78%。公司归母净利润下滑，主要因为项目结转毛利率同比下降。我们认为，随着低毛利项目陆续结转完毕，公司盈利能力将逐步得到修复。Key points of investment
On October 30, the company released its report for the third quarter of 2024: the first three quarters of 2024 achieved operating income of 78.009 billion yuan, +2.88% year-on-year; realized net profit of 2.601 billion yuan, or -31.00% year-on-year.
Revenue is steady, gross margin is under pressure
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 78.009 billion yuan, +2.88% year over year; gross margin of 9.95%, -8.3 pct year on year; net profit to mother was 2.601 billion yuan, or -31.00% year on year. The third quarter achieved revenue of 26.737 billion yuan in a single quarter, +9.64% year over year; gross margin was 6.05%, -16.4 pct year on year; net profit to mother was 1.183 billion yuan, -26.78% year over year. The company's net profit declined mainly due to the year-on-year decline in project carry-over gross margin. We believe that as low-margin projects are carried over one after another, the company's profitability will gradually be repaired.
Sales decline narrowed, land acquisition focused on core cities
The company's sales are at the forefront of the industry. According to data from the Central Index Institute, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved sales volume of 145.14 billion yuan, or -35.9% year-on-year, achieving a sales area of 6.38 million square meters, or -30.5% year-on-year. The decline was narrower than in the first half of the year. The company maintained fixed investment based on sales and acquired a total of 7 land plots in the third quarter, mainly in core cities such as Shanghai, with a total planned construction area of 0.5984 million square meters. The amount of land acquired by the company in the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.02 billion yuan, or -39.9% year-on-year. The equity acquisition area was 0.658 million square meters, or -49.3% year-on-year.
Active repurchases to boost market confidence
On October 16, 2024, the company issued an announcement that it intends to use its own funds or self-raised funds to repurchase shares through centralized bidding transactions. All repurchased shares will be cancelled. The share repurchase price is no more than RMB 15.68 per share, and the repurchase amount is not less than RMB 0.351 billion and no more than RMB 0.702 billion.
The estimated number of shares to be repurchased is approximately 2238.52 to 44.7704 million shares, accounting for 0.25% to 0.49% of the company's current total share capital. The company's share repurchase is conducive to boosting investor confidence and further stabilizing market expectations.
Investment advice
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 186.837/200.382/212.932 billion yuan, respectively, +6.76%/+7.25%/+6.26% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 6.356/7.481/9.042 billion yuan, respectively, +0.57%/+17.71%/+20.86% year-on-year, respectively. EPS was 0.70/0.83/1.00 yuan/share respectively, with a 3-year CAGR of 12.68%. The company operates steadily, has smooth financing, actively buyback stabilizes expectations, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations; market repair falls short of expectations; market competition intensifies.
