2024Q3石化业务部分产品价格同比重心整体下移。具体来看，山东丙烯价格6,926元/吨，同比上涨1.73%；山东正丁醇价格7,444元/吨，同比下跌12.45%；山东丙烯酸价格6,250元/吨，同比上涨1.66%；山东丙烯酸丁酯价格8,936元/吨，同比下跌6.09%；山东NPG加氢价格10,383元/吨，同比上涨10.73%；山东MTBE价格6,302元/吨，同比下跌17.83%；华东LLDPE膜级价格8,301元/吨，同比上涨0.80%；华东乙烯法PVC价格5,776元/吨，同比下跌8.39%。The company announced the 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved operating income of 147.604 billion yuan, +11.35%; realized net profit to mother of 11.093 billion yuan, -12.67% year over year; and realized net profit of 10.928 billion yuan without return to mother, or -12.07% year over year. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters were 15.38% and 8.33%, respectively, -1.38pcts and -2.12pcts year-on-year, respectively.
Prices of Q3 products weakened year-on-year, and profits declined due to maintenance of major installations in Yantai and Europe. The company achieved revenue of 50.537 billion yuan (YoY +12.48%, QoQ -0.72%), net profit of 2.919 billion yuan (YoY -29.41%, QoQ -27.33%), net profit of 2.829 billion yuan (YoY -31.30%, QoQ -28.78%) in 2024Q3, gross margin of 13.40% (YoY 4.03pcts, QoQ-1.91pcts), and net margin of 6.59% ( YOY-3.66pcts, QoQ-2.07pcts). The company's Q3 performance declined year on year, mainly due to the year-on-year decline in the price of the company's products, but the price of main raw materials rose year on year, leading to a decrease in the company's gross margin. At the same time, centralized maintenance of the company's main installations in Yantai and Europe in the third quarter also led to a year-on-year decline in profit in the third quarter.
Downstream demand in the 2024Q3 polyurethane business was weak, and the prices of some products showed a downward trend. In terms of pure MDI, due to high inventories of downstream finished products, industry volume intensified. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price of pure MDI market in 2024Q3 was about 18,485 yuan/ton (YoY -13.05%, QoQ -1.79%). In terms of polymeric MDI, demand for refrigerators and freezers rose in the third quarter due to the trade-in policy. Demand in the construction market improved slightly, and the export market remained stable. The average price in the 2024Q3 polymer MDI market was about 17,500 yuan/ton (YoY +5.39%, QoQ +2.23%). In terms of TDI, stocks of raw materials and finished products in the home furnishing industry are high, and demand in the TDI market is weak. The average TDI market price in the third quarter was about 1,514 yuan/ton (YoY -25.23%, QoQ -8.77%). In terms of soft foam polyether, demand in the home and automotive industry declined year-on-year in the third quarter. The average price of soft foam polyether market was about 8,708 yuan/ton (YoY -13.28%, QoQ -4.27%). However, according to Baichuan Yingfu's data, since October, with the gradual introduction and implementation of the economic stabilization policy, pure MDI and aggregated MDI profits have gradually improved, and the gross margins of both have been rising steadily.
The overall price of some products in the petrochemical business declined year-on-year in 2024Q3. Specifically, the price of propylene in Shandong was 6,926 yuan/ton, up 1.73% year on year; the price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7,444 yuan/ton, down 12.45%; the price of acrylic acid in Shandong was 6,250 yuan/ton, up 1.66% year on year; the price of butyl acrylate in Shandong was 8,936 yuan/ton, down 6.09% year on year; Shandong NPG hydrogenation price was 10,383 yuan/ton, up 10.73% year on year; Shandong MTBE price was 6,302 yuan/ton, up 17.83% year on year; East China LLDPE film grade price decreased by 8,30 yuan/ton, same year on year It rose 0.80% from the previous year; the price of ethylene PVC in East China was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 8.39% year on year.
Investment suggestions: The company continues to increase technological innovation, continuously extend the industrial chain, and expand the production of high-end products. It is expected that it will further consolidate its leading position and achieve continuous development. The company's basic earnings per share in 2024 are expected to be 4.97 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to the 2024 price-earnings ratio is 15 times, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Risk of project progress and benefits falling short of expectations; risk of exports falling short of expectations due to weakening economic demand in Europe and the US; risk of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations; risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of increased industry competition; and occurrence of force majeure events such as natural and man-made disasters.
