2024 年全球汽车销量增速放缓，公司重新定位业务实现增长根据公司资料，市场一般预计2024 年全球汽车销量将较2023 年略有增长。尽管增长有放缓，但2024 年的销量预计将超过92 百万辆，为2018 年以来的最高水平。Key points of investment
2024H1's revenue and profit grew steadily, and the asset structure was continuously optimized. 2024H1's revenue was RMB 1646.4 million (same below), an increase of 8.6% year on year, a record high; during the same period, the company's owners should account for about RMB 322.2 million in unaudited profit, an increase of 22.2% year on year.
On June 30, 2024, the company had 0.978 billion in cash, up 46.6% from the end of 2023; the company's bank loans were 62.3 million yuan, down 11.6% from the end of 2023.
Global car sales growth slowed in 2024, and the company repositioned its business to achieve growth. According to company data, the market generally expects global car sales to increase slightly in 2024 compared to 2023. Despite slowing growth, sales are expected to exceed 92 million units in 2024, the highest level since 2018.
The company's positioning was adjusted to a “global supplier”, focusing on the surface treatment business of automotive plastic parts.
The total sales volume of 2024H1's auto parts decreased by about 4.3 million units from about 193.5 million units in the first half of 2023 to about 189.2 million units in the first half of 2024, and the overall average sales price increased by 11.1% during the reporting period.
Scientific management combined with improvements in the Mexican factory, and the company's gross margin continued to rise. Compared with 33.4% in the first half of 2023, 2024H1's gross margin increased to 37.3%:
1) In the first half of 2024, the company's sales revenue increased by 8.6%, and sales costs remained stable, up only about 2.2% from the first half of 2023; 2) Since 2024, the business performance and efficiency of the Mexican plant have been further improved, and it has been progressing steadily, making positive contributions to the company's overall performance.
Maintaining a “buy” rating, target price of HK$4.5 per share
As of June 30, 2024, the total number of orders in the company was about RMB 10.5 billion, and there is a high degree of guarantee of future business revenue. We forecast that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 will be RMB 31.85 (+1.5%), 34.38 (+8%), and RMB 36.78 (+7%), respectively, and net profit to mother of 6.33 (+4.2%), 6.96 (+10%), and 7.53 (+8.1%) billion yuan.
The average net profit growth rate for the next three years is 7.5%. According to the prudent principle, we believe that it is reasonable to calculate the company's valuation based on 6.5 times PE in 2024. Corresponding to the target price of HK$4.5 per share, there is room for an increase of 22.6% from the current price, giving it a “buy” rating.
