军民无线通信领域深化布局，持续开拓客户与产品边界军用通信方面，公司中标“某数据智能应用服务中心”项目，将推动大数据与AI 技术在航空训练及装备试验领域的广泛应用，促进用户试验训练技术升级和转型；以第一名的成绩中标某平台卫星接收设备，构建了卫导机载接收机板卡外部批量生产新的供应链，丰富了卫导产品型谱，对公司未来外部市场开拓具有重要意义。民用通信方面，公司与国铁签订多份机车综合无线通信设备销售合同，并与陕西靖神、国能包神等地方铁路签订项目合同；在全国轨道交通市场方面，公司与天津、成都、济南、重庆、深圳等地签订多个轨道交通通信系统设备及服务合同，未来市场占有率有望稳步提升。The company 9M24 achieved revenue of 1.609 billion yuan (yoy -28.97%), net profit of -27.25 million yuan (yoy -108.85%), deducted non-net profit of -47.6671 million yuan (yoy -115.98%); of these, Q3 achieved revenue of 0.408 billion yuan (yoy -53.93%) and net profit of -94.1847 million yuan (yoy -194.37%), lower than what we had previously anticipated Expected (0.07 billion yuan). Affected by cyclical fluctuations in the industry, the company's orders fell short of expectations, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit. Looking forward to the future, we believe that as the “14th Five-Year Plan” comes to an end, the military industry is expected to gradually return to normal and promote the recovery of the company's performance. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Profitability declined year on year, and various expense ratios increased slightly year over year
The company's consolidated gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.92%, down 10.49pct year on year; net profit margin to mother was -1.69%, down 15.28pct year on year. The company's profitability declined or costs rose due to product restructuring and increased product integration. From the cost side, the company's sales expense rate/ management expense rate/ financial expense rate/ R&D expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 were 3.38%/9.10%/1.01%/23.71%, respectively, +0.79/+2.63/+0.75/+2.19pct, respectively. The main reason was that the cost ratio increased due to the year-on-year decrease in revenue scale.
The military and civilian wireless communication field deepens the layout and continues to explore customer and product boundaries in military communications. The company won the bid for the “Certain Data Intelligent Application Service Center” project, which will promote the widespread application of big data and AI technology in aviation training and equipment testing, and promote the upgrading and transformation of user test and training technology; it won the bid for a platform satellite receiving equipment with first place, and built a new supply chain for external mass production of Weidu airborne receiver boards, which is of great significance to the company's future external market development. In terms of civil communications, the company has signed a number of comprehensive wireless communication equipment sales contracts for locomotives, and has signed project contracts with local railways such as Jingshen and Guoneng Baoshen in Shaanxi; in the national rail transit market, the company has signed a number of rail transit communication system equipment and service contracts with Tianjin, Chengdu, Jinan, Chongqing, Shenzhen, etc., and the market share is expected to increase steadily in the future.
Maintain a “buy” rating
Considering the slowdown in demand for military goods orders, we expect net profit to be 0.171/0.408/0.51 billion yuan for 24-26 (previous value: 0.392/0.514/0.622 billion yuan); looking ahead to 25, we believe that as the military industry gradually returns to normal, the company's business is expected to recover. Considering the high growth of the company's data chain business and the synergy of layout in multiple fields, we give the 25-year target PE40x (comparable to the company's average value of 38x), with a target price of 21.13 yuan/share , maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: military orders fall short of expectations; business development falls short of expectations.
