2024Q3 公司收入基本持平，环比降速；分业务看，参考产业在线数据，我们预计当季公司中央空调业务在地产景气承压背景下同比有所下滑，家用空调业务有望在外销拉动下实现小幅增长，以冰箱为主的冰洗业务出口高增、内销小幅波动，预计双位数增长，此外我们预计三电公司经营总体平稳。此外为分内外销来看，我们预计公司当季外销增长较快，内销在7-8 月内需环境偏弱背景下，短期有所波动。Key points of investment
Hisense Home Appliances released its 2024 three-quarter report: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 70.579 billion yuan, +8.75% year over year, realized net profit of 2.793 billion yuan, +15.13% year over year, and realized deduction of non-net profit of 2.289 billion yuan, or +10.99% year-on-year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 21.937 billion yuan, -0.08% year-on-year, realized net profit of 0.777 billion yuan, or -16.29% year-on-year, and realized deduction of non-net profit of 0.586 billion yuan, or -26.67% year-on-year.
Revenue for the quarter decelerated month-on-month, and domestic sales fluctuated in the short term
2024Q3's revenue remained flat, decelerating month-on-month; by business, referring to industry online data, we expect the company's central air conditioning business to decline year-on-year in the current quarter against the backdrop of real estate pressure. The household air conditioning business is expected to grow slightly, driven by export sales. The ice washing business, which mainly focuses on refrigerators, has experienced high export growth, domestic sales fluctuate slightly, and is expected to increase in double digits. Furthermore, we expect the overall operation of Sandian Company to be stable. Furthermore, in terms of domestic and foreign sales, we expect the company's export sales to grow rapidly during the quarter. Domestic sales fluctuate in the short term against the backdrop of a weak domestic demand environment in July-August.
Cost lag is compounded by increased competition, putting pressure on profits
The gross margin of the 2024Q3 company was -2.45 pct to 20.76% year on year. We expect this is mainly due to the increase in the share of low margin export business. In addition, the delay in transmission of raw material price increases in the previous period was also affected, and the intensification of domestic sales competition during the same period was also dragged down. In terms of expenses, the company's sales expenses rate also declined. In addition, the company's management/R&D/finance expenses ratio for the quarter was +0.14/+0.68/+0.52 pct year on year, respectively. 2024Q3
In summary, the company's 2024Q3 net profit margin was -0.69pct to 3.54% year on year, and performance declined year-on-year.
Policy momentum & multi-business resonance, optimistic about medium- to long-term growth
Currently, national subsidy policies for home appliances in various provinces have been fully rolled out. As the country's leading home appliance brand, Hisense home appliances are expected to benefit from brand and channel advantages. The Hisense brand's white electricity market share is also worth looking forward to. Furthermore, equipment updates and real estate policies favorable to central air conditioning, HVAC channel collaboration, and product diversification are expected to drive the growth of central aviation; further considering that the company's potential to reduce costs and increase efficiency by streamlining SKUs and improving the supply chain is still quite prominent. We are optimistic that the company will achieve steady growth in performance in the medium to long term.
Maintaining the company's “buy” rating
Domestic sales of Hisense Home Appliances declined in 2024Q3. Export sales were high year-on-year, compounded by delayed transmission of raw material price increases, and profits fluctuated during the quarter. We believe that the company is expected to unleash performance elasticity in the context of policy implementation, overseas expansion, and cost reduction and efficiency in the fourth quarter. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 93.5/103.4/114.4 billion yuan, respectively, and +9%/+11%, respectively; net profit to mother will be 3.404/3.914/4.493 billion yuan, respectively, +20%/+15%/+15% year over year, and corresponding PE will be 11.8/10.2/8.9, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations; raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations; external demand improvements fall short of expectations
