Incident: The company released its three-quarter report. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 42.399 billion yuan, +20.79% year over year; realized net profit to mother of 2.315 billion yuan, +28.32% year over year; realized deducted non-net profit of 2.208 billion yuan, +30.02% year over year. In 3Q24, the company achieved revenue of 15.785 billion yuan, +32.38% year on year; realized net profit of 0.705 billion yuan, +27.25% year on year; deducted non-net profit of 0.693 billion yuan, +40.94% year over year. The performance was in line with expectations and continued to grow rapidly.
There are plenty of orders on hand, providing a strong impetus for the company's growth. As of September 30, 2024, the company has an on-hand order amount of about 20 billion yuan in the energy interconnection field such as submarine cables, marine engineering and land cable products; an on-hand order amount of about 6 billion yuan for the PEACE trans-ocean cable communication system operation project.
Promote the high-quality development of the marine energy industry and complete the introduction of strategic investors. In order to better and faster promote the global industrial layout of the marine energy sector, the company introduced strategic investors through its subsidiary Jiangsu Hengtong High Voltage Submarine Cable Co., Ltd. In December 2023, the strategic investor Guokai Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading Fund increased its capital to Hengtong High Pressure by 1 billion yuan according to Hengtong High Pressure's pre-investment valuation of 17.5 billion yuan. In 2024, the company continued to introduce nine strategic investors in March and June, respectively. As of July 22, 2024, the current round of financing has been settled; the company has introduced ten strategic investors, and the total amount of financing for the marine energy sector has reached 2.59 billion yuan. The company continues to be the controlling shareholder of Hengtong High Pressure and still has actual control over Hengtong High Pressure.
The company's two core businesses, communication networks and energy connectivity, are in a leading position in the industry. The company insists on focusing on the two core businesses of communication networks and energy interconnection. In the field of communication networks, the company has further strengthened its industrial layout and competitiveness in the communications industry through R&D and upgrading of optical rod technology, the full integration of the marine communication sector, the construction of the PEACE trans-ocean cable communication system operation project and Singapore extension, and the acquisition of the world's leading specialty optical fiber manufacturers. In the field of energy interconnection, through continuous technology accumulation, integration and innovation, the company has built a full value chain system with high-end core products and equipment as the lead, complete system solutions and engineering turnkey. At the same time, it has grasped the global offshore wind power clean energy development opportunities, further expanded the offshore wind power industry chain, and has global offshore wind power engineering service capabilities.
Profit forecasting, valuation and rating: The company is an innovative enterprise in the fields of optical fiber optic networks, smart grids, big data and the Internet of Things in China, making continuous breakthroughs in the fields of optical fiber communication, ultra-high voltage submarine cables, silicon photonics and new energy materials.
Considering the recovery of Haifeng Construction boom and the accelerated expansion of overseas orders, we raised our 2024-2025 net profit forecast to 2.854/3.406 billion yuan (up 5.39% and 4.96%), and added the 2026 net profit forecast to be 3.939 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to the 24-26 PE of 15x, 13x, and 11x respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: The fiber-optic price boom cycle has declined, gross margin has declined, and the submarine cable boom has declined.