煤炭业务：Q3 内销环比大幅增长，煤价环比维增? 2024 前三季度原煤产量为1558 万吨，同比减少6.17%；商品煤产量1388 万吨，同比减少6.74%。商品煤销量为1379 万吨，同比减少9.50%，其中对外销量997 万吨（同比-16.49%）、对内销量382 万吨（同比+15.84%）。2024Q3 原煤产量520 万吨（同比-3.09%，环比-3.11%），商品煤产量452 万吨（同比-10.48%，环比-3.05%）。Xinji Energy released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on October 25, 2024:
Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 9.189 billion yuan, down 5.19% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.824 billion yuan, down 5.01% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.787 billion yuan, down 5.79% year on year; basic earnings per share was 0.7 yuan, down 5.41% year on year; weighted average ROE of 12.76%, down 2.7 pct year on year.
2024Q3's revenue was 3.204 billion yuan, down 6.63% year on year, up 9.45% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.649 billion yuan, up 5.86% year on year, up 12.16% month on month; net profit after deducted from mother was 0.649 billion yuan, up 6.43% year on year, up 16.79% month on month.
Coal business: In Q3, domestic sales increased sharply month-on-month, and coal prices continued to increase month-on-month? Raw coal production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.58 million tons, down 6.17% year on year; commercial coal production was 13.88 million tons, down 6.74% year on year. Commercial coal sales were 13.79 million tons, down 9.50% year on year, including external sales of 9.97 million tons (-16.49%) and domestic sales of 3.82 million tons (+15.84% year on year). 2024Q3 raw coal production is 5.2 million tons (-3.09% YoY, -3.11% YoY), and commercial coal production is 4.52 million tons (-10.48% YoY, -3.05% YoY).
Commercial coal sales volume was 4.68 million tons (-8.02% YoY, +2.24% month-on-month), including external sales volume 2.85 million tonnes (YoY -22.17%, Q--21.23%) and domestic sales volume 1.83 million tonnes (YoY +28.20%, Q-+90.34%).
In the first three quarters of 2024, the price of tons of coal was 562 yuan/ton, up 3.14% year on year; the cost of tons of coal was 341 yuan/ton, up 2.08% year on year; gross profit of tons of coal was 221 yuan/ton, up 4.80% year on year. The price of 2024Q3 tons of coal is 558 yuan/ton (+0.45% year on month, +0.75% month on month), the cost of a ton of coal is 345 yuan/ton (+0.83% year on month, +3.91% month on month), and gross profit per ton of coal is 213 yuan/ton (-0.16% year over year, -3.97% month on month).
Electricity business: The second phase of the Lixin Power Plant was put into operation, and the power generation increased sharply in Q3? In the first three quarters of 2024, power generation was 8.6 billion kilowatt-hours, up 16.14% year on year; feed-in electricity was 8.1 billion kilowatt-hours, up 16.18% year on year; average feed-in electricity price was 0.406 yuan/kilowatt-hour, down 0.93% year on year. The 2024Q3 power generation capacity was 4 billion kilowatt-hours (+20.77% YoY, +85.94% month-on-month) and 3.8 billion kilowatt-hours (YoY +20).
53%, +86.19% month-on-month), with an average feed-in tariff of 0.399 yuan/kilowatt-hour (-3.50% YoY, -3.90% month-on-month).
The two units of the Lixin Power Plant Phase II (2*660MW) completed 168 hours of full operation on August 31, 2024 and September 30, 2024, respectively. They were transferred to commercial operation, and power generation rose sharply in Q3. Looking forward to the future, the Shangrao Power Plant, Chuzhou Power Plant, and Lu'an Power Plant have all started construction in the first half of 2024, and successfully obtained construction targets for a total of 0.5 million kilowatt wind power projects in Lingdong and Lingxi in Mingguang City, 0.09 million kilowatt water surface photovoltaic projects in the Maoji Experimental Zone, and completed the processing of supporting documents in counties and districts where projects such as 0.3 million kilowatt wind power in Yu'an District of Lu'an City and 0.1 million kilowatt wind power in southern Lixin County are located, and the scale of the power business is expected to continue to expand.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: The estimated operating income for 2024-2026 is 12.717, 14.334, and 20.373 billion yuan, respectively, and realized net profit to mother is 2.379, 2.512, and 2.944 billion yuan, respectively, with earnings per share of 0.
92, 0.97, and 1.14 yuan. The current stock price is 8.16 yuan. The corresponding PE is 9.3X/8.8X/7.5X, respectively, maintaining the “overholding” rating.
Risk warning events: the risk of coal prices falling beyond expectations, the risk of falling short of expectations in construction and nuclear reinforcement mines, the risk of a sharp rise in coal chemical costs, and the risk of untimely updates to research and use information data.
