IGBT 价格下滑，公司业绩短期承压。公司2024Q3 实现营收3.43 亿元，同比-7.53%；归母净利润152.68 万元，同比-93.37%；扣非归母-711.11 万元，同比-129.26%；毛利率14.74%，同比-6.91pct。国内半导体市场结构性分化明显，其中，人工智能、XR、消费电子等领域下游市场需求显著回暖，新能源汽车、新能源发电等下游市场需求出现拐点，但汽车端的产品价格竞争较为激烈。Incidents:
Hongwei Technology released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 0.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -13.72% year over year; net profit to mother of 4.0409 million yuan, -95.28% year over year; net profit without return to mother -10.152 million yuan, or -112.28% year on year; and gross profit margin of 15.37%, or -6.02pct year on year.
Comment:
IGBT prices have declined, putting pressure on the company's performance in the short term. In 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.343 billion yuan, -7.53%; net profit to mother of 1.5268 million yuan, -93.37% year over year; deducted from mother -7.1111 million yuan, -129.26% year on year; gross profit margin of 14.74%, -6.91 pct year on year. The structural differentiation of the domestic semiconductor market is obvious. Among them, demand in downstream markets such as artificial intelligence, XR, and consumer electronics has picked up markedly, and demand in downstream markets such as new energy vehicles and new energy power generation has reached an inflection point, but the price competition for products on the automotive side is fierce.
R&D technology continues to break through, and high-end products continue to be released. 1) Silicon carbide: The company's first 1200V40Mohm SiC MOSFET chip has been successfully developed and has passed reliability verification; the automotive-grade 1200V13mOhm SiC MOSFET chip is being actively developed; the self-developed SiC SBD chip has passed reliability verification and system-level verification by many end customers, and has passed corresponding reliability and board-level performance tests on key clients, and some products have been shipped in small batches. 2) Vehicle regulations:
For different application scenarios on the main drive inverter side and power generation side of new energy vehicles, the company has successively developed vehicle-grade 280A-820A/750V encapsulation modules with different transmission capabilities, all of which have passed AQG324 and other relevant vehicle certification, and entered the mass production stage; vehicle-grade 400-800A/750V double/single-sided heat dissipation molding modules have been mass-produced, and production capacity has been upgraded based on market demand.
Bulk delivery of core kinetic energy has started, and production capacity will be released soon. The project plans to build an annual production capacity of 7.2 million units, focusing on the in-depth layout of plastic packaging modules, double-sided and single-sided heat dissipation molding modules, and broadening the company's product models and application scope in electric vehicles and other fields. The 23-year project was completed, and tens of thousands of plastic module products used only for main drives were delivered to customers in batches. It is estimated that more than one million units will be shipped in 24 years.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.35/1.65/2.07 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother 0.01/0.06/0.12 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 387x/67x/34x, respectively. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.
Risk warning: recovery falls short of expectations; competitive landscape deteriorates; introduction of new products falls short of expectations