获大众悬架控制器项目定点。根据科博达公众号，公司于2024 年7 月获得大众悬架控制器项目定点，根据项目计划，量产时间为2026 年4 月，该定点标志科博达的地盘产品首次进入大众集团，以及科博达除灯控外又一款高附加值新产品在实现国内客户大范围覆盖的基础上，成功进入全球市场。Key points of investment:
Keboda announced results for the third quarter of 2024: operating income of 1.53 billion yuan, +24% year over month, +15% month on month; realized net profit of 0.23 billion yuan, +31% year on month, +54% month on month; gross profit margin 29.65%, -0.91 pcts year on year, +3.53 pcts month on month; net profit margin 15.9%, +0.33pcts year on month, +3.52 pcts month on month.
Energy management systems lead to revenue growth. By business, 24Q3 lighting control systems achieved revenue of 0.76 billion yuan, +19%; motor control systems achieved revenue of 0.23 billion yuan, +17% year over year; energy management systems achieved revenue of 0.25 billion yuan, +94% year over year; and vehicle appliances and electronics achieved revenue of 0.21 billion yuan, +0.2% year over year.
Designated as a Volkswagen suspension controller project. According to Keboda's official account, the company was designated for the Volkswagen suspension controller project in July 2024. According to the project plan, the mass production period is April 2026. This fixed point marks the first entry of Keboda's site products into the Volkswagen Group, and Keboda's new high-value-added product in addition to lighting control has successfully entered the global market on the basis of achieving extensive coverage of domestic customers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6.1/7.7/9.5 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.811/1.095/1.388 billion yuan, and EPS 2.01/2.71/3.44, respectively.
Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 30-35x PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 60.26 to 70.30 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Global passenger car sales have fallen short of expectations, and raw material prices have risen sharply.
