Q1/Q2/Q3 公司单季度营收增速分别为-2.1%/8.7%/2.6%，行业弱需求背景下营收仍保持稳定。参考上半年，分业务看：1）检验检测营收7.49 亿元，同比增2.61%，其中工程/材料/环境/食农检测分别实现增长9.61%/-4.34%/-1.62%/-11.36%，收入占板块比例分别为52.52%/23.23%/18.75%/5.51%，公司夯实优势领域，持续拓展市场空间，工程板块收入回升，受房地产行业拖累、土壤三普订单进展不及预期、食农需求弱及地方政府财政压力影响，其他子板块增速下降；2）检测仪器与智能制造营收1.34 亿元，同比增9.86%，上半年公司立足钢铁、水泥等传统优势领域，在有色行业取得持续突破，2024H1 板块实现合同额约2.2 亿元（同比增约20%）；3）科研及技术服务营收0.87 亿元，同比增2.00%；4）认证服务营收0.48 亿元，同比降0.32%，2024H1 累计颁发绿色产品认证和绿色建材产品认证证书1,900 余张；5）计量校准服务营收0.20 亿元，同比增20.50%，2023 年4月底外延并购安徽华方带来增量。Description of the event
China Inspection Group released its 2024 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 1.652 billion yuan, up 3.27% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.071 billion yuan, down 3.51% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.05 billion yuan, down 3.46% year on year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 0.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%; net profit to mother was 0.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%; and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%.
Incident comments
In Q1/Q2/Q3, the company's revenue growth rate in the single quarter was -2.1%/8.7%/2.6%, respectively, and revenue remained stable in the context of weak demand in the industry. Referring to the first half of the year, by business: 1) Inspection and testing revenue was 0.749 billion yuan, up 2.61% year on year. Among them, engineering/materials/environment/food and agricultural testing achieved 9.61%/-4.34%/-1.62%/-11.36%, respectively, and the revenue share of the sector was 52.52%/23.23%/18.75%/5.51%, respectively. The company consolidated its superior areas and continued to expand market space. Revenue from the engineering sector rebounded, dragged down by the real estate industry, falling short of expectations in soil and agricultural demand, and local government finances Due to pressure, the growth rate of other sub-sectors declined; 2) Testing instruments and intelligent manufacturing revenue was 0.134 billion yuan, up 9.86% year on year. In the first half of the year, the company achieved continuous breakthroughs in the non-ferrous industry based on traditional advantage fields such as steel and cement. The 2024H1 sector achieved a contract amount of about 0.22 billion yuan (about 20% increase year on year); 3) Research and technical service revenue was 0.087 billion yuan, up 2.00% year on year; 4) Certification service revenue was 0.048 billion yuan, down 0.32% year on year. 2024H1 has issued more than 1,900 green product certifications and green building materials product certification certificates; 5) Measurement and calibration service revenue was 0.02 billion yuan, an increase of 20.50% over the previous year. The increase was brought about by the extended merger and acquisition of Anhui Huafang at the end of April 2023.
2024Q3 net margin fell 0.22pct year over year to 9.23%. 1) Gross profit margin: 2024Q3 increased by 1.25 pct to 39.6%, and the gross margin of inspection testing/certification/testing instruments and intelligent manufacturing/measurement calibration/scientific research and technical services changed respectively in the first half of the year, -0.78pct/-1.71pct/-4.10pct/-17.99pct/-3.20pct, differences in gross margin between different projects of intelligent manufacturing customized services, and seasonality of national inspection and measurement revenue from new mergers and acquisitions had an impact on the gross margin of the measurement sector; 2) Expense ratio: the cost ratio increased by 1.39 pcts year-on-year 28.99%, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio changed 0.49pct/1.84pct/-0.78pct/-0.16pct year-on-year. 3) Cash flow: Affected by the external macro environment, the company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -0.012 billion yuan (0.024 billion yuan in the same period last year), and the revenue ratio decreased by 4.1 pct to 94%.
Total target profit for 2024 increased 10.5% year over year. The company announced its target revenue for this year was 2.9 billion yuan, up 9.01% year on year; total profit was 0.44 billion yuan, up 10.52% year on year. Q1-3 Revenue was 1.652 billion yuan, up 3.27% year on year, and total profit was 0.099 billion yuan, up 1.41% year on year. The peak season for environmental/agricultural testing and other businesses is in the second half, and efforts are still needed to achieve the annual target.
Publicly issue 0.8 billion yuan of convertible bonds to supplement capital and optimize the structure. On October 23, the company completed issuing 0.8 billion yuan of convertible bonds to unspecified targets to raise funds for Hunan Huake Laboratory, Hunan Company, Hebei Xiong'an Laboratory, carbon emission management platform construction and equity investment projects to provide the company with more effective financial support and further optimize the financing structure. Convertible bonds have a six-year term, coupon interest rates of 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.5%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively, and a credit rating of AA+.
Profit forecasting and valuation: We expect the company's “cross-regional+cross-sector” mergers and acquisitions to continue to advance, demand in the real estate industry to pick up, and subsidiary profits to improve. The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 2.78/2.98/3.24 billion yuan, up 4.5%/7.3%/8.8% year on year; net profit to mother is 0.25/0.27/0.301 billion yuan, -2.6%/+8.0%/+11.5% year over year, corresponding to PE valuation 21.7x/20.1x/18.0x. Give it an “gain” rating.
Risk warning
1. The risk of credibility and brand being affected by adverse events; 2. Decision risk of mergers and acquisitions and risk of integration after mergers and acquisitions.
