Q3 风电行业景气度回升，叶片产量同环比均高增。分业务板块来看，2024Q1-3 汽车/ 轨交/ 工业与工程/ 风电叶片/ 新材料及其他营收分别为53.3/15.5/13/46.3/2.6 亿元，同比+4.1%/+8.4%/-4.9%/+5.6%/-14.7%。其中2024Q3营收分别为16.8/3.9/4/18.2/1.1 亿元，环比-6.6%/-42.2%/+1.8%/+23%/+6.8%。Matters:
On October 30, 2024, the company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. 2024Q1-3 achieved operating income of 13.07 billion yuan, +3.7% year on year; net profit to mother 0.3 billion yuan, +11.1% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.27 billion yuan, -16.2% year on year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, +0.5%/-1.1% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 0.08 billion yuan, +15.7%/-18.8% month-on-month; net profit excluding non-return to mother 0.07 billion yuan, or -52.9%/-19.3% month-on-month.
Commentary:
Q3 The boom in the wind power industry rebounded, and blade production increased significantly compared to the same period last year. By business segment, the revenue of 2024Q1-3 automobile/rail transport/ industrial and engineering/ wind power blades/ new materials and other materials was 53.3/15.5/1.3/4.63/0.26 billion yuan, respectively, +4.1%/+8.4%/-4.9%/+5.6%/-14.7% compared with the same period last year. Of these, 2024Q3 revenue was 16.8/3.9/0.4/1.82/0.11 billion yuan, respectively, -6.6%/-42.2%/+1.8%/+23%/+6.8% month-on-month.
The boom in the 2024Q3 wind power industry has rebounded significantly, with an output of 5.9 GW, +39%/+40% YoY.
Q3 Profits fluctuated in the short term, and the ability to control expenses was good. In terms of profitability, benefiting from falling prices of raw materials such as steel and natural rubber, 2024Q1-3's gross margin was 16.2%, +0.1 pct year on year; net margin was 2.4%, +0.7 pct year on year. 2024Q3 was affected by factors such as changes in revenue structure, accrued credit impairment, and asset impairment losses totaling 41.477 million yuan. Profit fluctuated in the short term. The gross margin was 15.6%, or -2pct/month-on-month; the net margin was 1.8%, +0.9pct/-0.5pct month-on-month. In terms of cost ratio, the 2024Q1-3 company's cost rate for the period was 13.3%, -0.3 pct year on year. Among them, sales/management (including R&D) /finance expenses were 2.7%/9.9%/0.7%, respectively, -0.6 pct/-0.1 pct/+0.4 pct.
Investment suggestion: The company is one of the leading companies for wind power blades, circuits/bridge construction/automobile vibration damping (shock). Towards the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, the progress of wind power projects accelerated markedly, and blade delivery entered the peak period. Considering the high credit and asset impairment losses in the third quarter, we expect the company's net profit to mother in 2024-2026 to be 0.47/0.72/0.84 billion yuan (24-26 years ago the value was 0.51/0.73/0.85 billion yuan), EPS was 0.6/0.9/1 yuan/share, corresponding to PE 22/14/12 times Using the PE valuation method, considering that 25 years will usher in the wind power rush period and the automobile business will achieve positive growth, performance growth is highly certain. The company is given 18 times PE in 25 years, corresponding to a target price of 15.7 yuan/share, and maintains a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Wind power installations fall short of expectations, overseas market expansion falls short of expectations, the localization and substitution process of new materials falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, etc.
