维持“增持”评级。公司发布 2024年三季报，实现营收 51.36亿元，同降17.7%，归母净利润1.26 亿元，同增54.0%，扣非后0.04 亿元，同降50.2%；倒算24Q3 实现营收16.65 亿元，同降12.3%，归母净利润0.32 亿元，同增51.2%，扣非后-0.38 亿元，同比减亏0.08 亿元，基本符合预期。低基数叠加公司业务结构调整推进、丰泽发货逐步恢复，营收降幅改善，同时工抵房处置推进下减值冲回贡献利润。考虑需求修复仍需时间，我们下调2024-26 年EPS 预测至0.15、0.22、0.29（-0.04、-0.08、-0.10）元，参考可比公司2025 年PE 32X，上调目标价至7 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company announced the 2024 three-quarter report. The waterproof structure continued to be adjusted, Fortress delivery gradually resumed, gross margin improved year-on-year, and depreciation surged back into profits due to the promotion of workers' housing disposal.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company released the 2024 three-quarter report, achieving revenue of 5.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7%, a net profit of 0.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.0%, after deducting 0.004 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.2%; in 24Q3, it achieved revenue of 1.665 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3%, net profit to mother of 0.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.2% and -0.038 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year loss of 0.008 billion yuan billion yuan, basically in line with expectations. The low base compounded the company's business restructuring, the gradual resumption of Fortress delivery, and the decline in revenue improved. At the same time, depreciation surged back into profits due to the promotion of workers' and housing disposal. Considering that demand recovery will take time, we lowered our 2024-26 EPS forecast to 0.15, 0.22, 0.29 (-0.04, -0.08, -0.10) yuan, referring to comparable companies' 2025 PE 32X, and raised the target price to 7 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
The adjustment of the waterproof structure progressed, and Fortress delivery gradually resumed. Looking at each channel, we expect the company's 24Q3 waterproof civil construction to remain high. Construction and distribution will decline slightly but the decline will narrow slightly. Engineering construction and direct sales materials will maintain a strategic contraction, and the overall decline will improve under a low base. At the same time, we expect that Fengze will gradually resume deliveries, and the drag will abate somewhat. Looking ahead, the overall risk control strategy is expected to remain robust during the year.
Gross margin improved year over year, and expense ratios were hampered by weakening amortization. The company's 24Q3 gross profit margin was 22.19%, with an increase of 0.84 pcts and a drop of 0.98 pcts. The waterproof price side is expected to be relatively stable year over year. Combined with product structure optimization and cost side improvements, gross margin increased slightly year over year. The slight month-on-month decline is expected to be mainly affected by the decline in production capacity utilization. The company's expenses for the period were 0.322 billion yuan, and the cost ratio was 19.3%. The absolute value remained the same year on year. The cost ratio increased 2.4 pcts as the amortization effect weakened.
The depreciation has been reversed due to the promotion of the disposal of workers' homes. The company's Q3 credit impairment in a single quarter was about 6.84 million yuan, with a decrease of about 0.127 billion yuan. Among them, it was mainly affected by the large amount of recovery in the single quarter. The company's Q3 single account was about 0.073 billion yuan, which is expected to be mainly affected by housing transfers. As repayment and disposal continues to advance, it is expected that there is still room for recovery. The 24-year exposure showed an advantage year over year.
Risk warning: Real estate investment has declined sharply, prices of raw materials have risen more than expected, etc.