Incident: CICC released its 2024 three-quarter report. With 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved operating income of 13.449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; realized net profit to mother of 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.97%. The company's weighted average ROE was 2.64%, compared with -2.2 pcts in the same period last year. Company brokerage/credit/own-operation/investment banking/asset management (excluding other revenue) accounted for 21.8%, -10.2%, 63.6%, 17.6%, and 7.2%, respectively (keep one decimal fraction). The company's leverage level (excluding customer assets) is 5.08X, -0.11X compared to the beginning of the year. Q3 In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 4.539 billion yuan, -9.9% month-on-month and -10% year-on-year; realized net profit of 0.63 billion yuan, or -36.3% month-on-month, and -39.8% year-on-year.
Proprietary investment improved month-on-month, and reversal of losses in exchange earnings dragged down performance. 1) Self-operated: 24Q1-Q3, the company achieved self-employment investment revenue of 7.46 billion yuan, +6.94% year-on-year. Q3 Investment income in a single quarter was 3.21 billion yuan, +34% month-on-month and +26% year-on-year. Exchange losses due to exchange rate fluctuations in foreign exchange derivatives transactions (24Q3 month-on-month losses) dragged down overall performance. As of 2024Q3, the company's financial assets were 352.86 billion yuan, which is basically the same as at the beginning of the year. 2) Credit: 24Q1-Q3, the company achieved net interest income of -1.19 billion yuan and single-quarter revenue of -0.38 billion yuan, putting pressure on performance.
Asset-light business performance is under pressure, and overseas investment banks have an advantage. 1) Brokerage: Affected by the year-on-year decline in the average daily share base transaction volume in the 24Q1-3 market, the company achieved brokerage revenue of 2.56 billion yuan, or -27% year-on-year. 24Q1-Q3 As of 24Q3, the amount of securities traded by the company's agents was +25.7% month-on-month to 103.13 billion yuan, and the subsequent market recovery performance is expected to recover. 2) Investment banking: 24Q1-Q3, the company achieved investment banking revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, -21.4% year on year; Q3 achieved revenue of 0.782 billion yuan in a single quarter, -5.9% month-on-month and +23.9% year-on-year. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's equity underwriting amount was 26.736 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry.
The company's Hong Kong stock underwriting amount is HK$19.876 billion, ranking first in the industry. 3) Asset management: 24Q1-Q3, the company achieved asset management business revenue of 0.839 billion yuan, -11.7% year-on-year.
Investment advice: Taking into account the company's outstanding advantages in cross-border business and institutional business, the short-term pressure on the business will not change its long-term competitive advantage. Net profit to the mother is expected to be -21.8% YoY to 4.817 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, large market fluctuations, operational and business risks.