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大选前夜,“特朗普交易风向标”崩了

On the eve of the election, the "Trump trade indicator" collapsed.

wallstreetcn ·  13:22

Trump Media Technology Group stock price has recently plummeted by 36% over the past three trading days, with a market cap evaporating over 4 billion US dollars. This means that there has been a 180-degree major turnaround in market pricing - from betting on Trump to betting on Harris.

With only three days left until the USA presidential election, the 'Trump Trade' trend has taken a sharp downturn, leading to a sharp drop in Trump's social media companies under his control, severely reducing his net assets.

Following a 22% drop on Wednesday and a 12% drop on Thursday, the stock price of Truth Social's parent company on social media platform declined by 14% on Friday, with a total plunge of 36% over three trading days, resulting in a market cap evaporation of over $4 billion. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ The stock price of the parent company of Truth Social on the social media platform, after dropping by 22% on Wednesday and 12% on Thursday, fell by another 14% on Friday, resulting in a cumulative crash of 36% over three trading days, wiping out over $4 billion in market value.

After the market closed on Tuesday, Trump's majority stake in the company was valued at approximately $5.9 billion, but by Friday's close, this number had shrunk by $2.4 billion to $3.5 billion.

As a significant indicator of the 'Trump Trade,' the plummeting DJT stock price signifies a 180-degree reversal in market pricing—from betting on Trump to betting on Harris.

Nevertheless, current opinion polls clearly indicate a close race with almost a deadlock between the two sides. Opinion polls in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which could determine the election outcome, also show a very small gap between the two candidates.

Trump's chances are decreasing, so there is no reason for DJT to rise anymore.

DJT has not released any major news to explain the reason for the sharp drop in stock prices. Strategist Steve Sosnick pointed out, "DJT and other meme stocks are easily influenced by changes in momentum."

Earlier this week, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, he pointed out that there has been a noticeable "atmospheric change" in the gambling market in recent days: the market surge last week was good news for DJT; on the contrary, if the market changes, stock prices will fall.

"Remember, this stock is essentially a binary, leveraged election bet," Sosnick said, "If he wins, there is a reason to increase its value. If he loses, it will become a thinly profitable, almost unprofitable company."

With the growing call for Trump's return to the White House, prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all show that Trump's chances of winning the presidential election are higher than Harris'.

This expectation drove DJT's stock price to quadruple from September 23 to Tuesday's close, expanding its market cap to $10.3 billion, making Truth Social briefly valued at over $1 billion, even surpassing the implied valuation of Elon Musk's social networking platform X. Fidelity's latest regulatory filing values X at $0.9 billion.

After three days of sharp declines in trading, DJT's market cap has shrunk to $6.1 billion. Meanwhile, DJT's fundamentals remain very weak, unable to provide support for the company's stock price.

In August, DJT announced its second-quarter (ending June 30) performance, with a net loss of $16.4 million, about half of which related to the company's SPAC transaction expenses. In addition, the company's second-quarter revenue was slightly below $0.837 million, a 30% decrease year-on-year. Earlier this month, the company revealed that its Chief Operation Officer had resigned in September.

Editor/rice

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