主要会计数据和财务指标发生显著变动，主要涉及货币资金与应收账款方面：截至2024 年第三季度，公司货币资金同比大幅下降56.22%，主要是由于生产经营支出的增加；应收票据和预付款项分别同比下降40.82%和30.16%，这与票据到期承兑和已购材料入库销账有关；存货和其他流动资产分别同比增长35.61%和85.33%，反映了订单增加和待抵扣进项税额的增加；短期借款同比激增160.52%，显示出公司短期融资需求的增长；应付票据和应付账款分别同比下降25.55%和增长58.79%，这与票据到期承兑和生产任务量增加导致的采购增加有关。此外，2024 年前三季度，公司的经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比下降了29.06%，主要是由于收到客户预付款减少和采购物资支出增加。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 25.956 billion yuan, -1.33% YoY; net profit to mother was 0.726 billion yuan, -29.56% YoY.
Key points of investment
Financial and sales expenses have risen, and the company's performance is relatively under pressure: the increase in financial expenses is also an important reason for dragging down performance. The company's financial expenses in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 0.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.36%; in addition, due to the increase in after-sales support tasks, corresponding sales expenses also increased, further reducing profit margins. The company's sales expenses reached 0.439 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, year-on-year + 18.62%. In this context, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 25.956 billion yuan, -1.33% YoY; net profit to mother of 0.726 billion yuan, or -29.56% YoY. Among them, the third quarter of 2024 dragged down the company's annual results, achieving operating income of 7.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.18%; net profit to mother of 0.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.01%.
The main accounting data and financial indicators changed significantly, mainly in terms of monetary funds and accounts receivable: as of the third quarter of 2024, the company's monetary capital fell sharply by 56.22% year on year, mainly due to an increase in production and operation expenses; notes receivable and advance payments fell 40.82% and 30.16% year on year, respectively, which is related to the acceptance of matured notes and the storage and cancellation of purchased materials; inventory and other current assets increased 35.61% and 85.33%, respectively, reflecting an increase in orders and an increase in input taxes to be deducted; short-term loans surged year-on-year 160.52%, showing an increase in the company's short-term financing needs; notes payable and accounts payable decreased by 25.55% and increased by 58.79% year-on-year, respectively. This is related to the increase in procurement due to bill maturity and acceptance and increased production tasks. Furthermore, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net cash flow from operating activities fell 29.06% year over year, mainly due to a decrease in advance payments received from customers and an increase in procurement expenses.
Although the third quarter results were under pressure, overall downstream demand was still strong, and the military and civilian market drove both upward demand: the company's downstream demand remained strong, showing a steady growth trend. Specifically, the company's aero engine and derivatives business has maintained steady growth over a long period of time, and the company's foreign trade export subcontract business achieved revenue as a new growth point for the company, and has also entered a rapid pace of development. Furthermore, as of the third quarter of 2024, the company's inventory growth reached the highest level in history of 40.227 billion yuan, indicating that the company's production tasks continue to be full, and it is expected that delivery will be completed gradually as the pace of downstream demand recovers. Overall, the growth in contract liabilities, inventory, and company prepayments all indicate strong demand for the company's products from downstream customers. As special aviation production models gradually mature and models under development continue to be transferred to batch production, the company's performance is expected to achieve steady growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's performance is in line with expectations. Considering the high consumption level of aero engines and the company's central position in the industry, and based on the pace of equipment release, we maintain our previous forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.615/1.998/2.554 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 72/58/45 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) macroeconomic development risk; 2) production and operation risk; 3) risk of defense budgets falling short of expectations.