“量价齐升”推动新业务价值同比+22%（固定汇率）。2024 年前三季度，公司实现新业务价值36.2 亿美元，同比+22%（固定汇率）/+19.6%，其中24Q1/Q2/Q3单季分别同比+26.9%/+14.8%/+16.8%，整体延续较好增长态势，且2024 年每季新业务价值均创该季新高，彰显业务实力与多元化。具体来看，前三季度年化新保费为67.6 亿美元， 同比+14.1%， 其中24Q1/Q2/Q3 单季分别同比+22.6%/+5.6%/14.1%；前三季度新业务价值率录得53.3%，同比+2.4pct，主要得益于产品结构优化及产品重定价。Incidents:
In the first three quarters of 2024, AIA achieved a new business value of 3.62 billion US dollars, +22% (fixed exchange rate)/+19.6% (real exchange rate, not indicated below), of which 24Q3 single quarter was +16.8%; new business value ratio was 53.3%, +2.4 pct year over year; new annualized premium of 6.76 billion US dollars, +14.1% year over year, of which 24Q3 single quarter +14.1% year on year; total weighted premium income of 31.39 billion US dollars, year on year + 9.5%, of which 24Q3 was +10.1% year-on-quarter.
Comment:
The “sharp rise in volume and price” drove the value of new businesses +22% year-on-year (fixed exchange rate). In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a new business value of 3.62 billion US dollars, +22% (fixed exchange rate)/+19.6%, of which 24Q1/Q2/Q3 were +26.9%/+14.8%/+16.8%, respectively. The overall growth trend continued, and the value of new business in each quarter of 2024 hit new highs for the quarter, highlighting business strength and diversification. Specifically, the new annualized premiums for the first three quarters were 6.76 billion US dollars, +14.1% year over year, of which 24Q1/Q2/Q3 were +22.6%/14.1% year over year, respectively; the new business value rate for the first three quarters recorded 53.3%, +2.4 pct year over year, mainly due to product structure optimization and product repricing.
By market, the value of new business in all reporting segments recorded positive growth in the third quarter.
1) The value of new business in the mainland China market increased 9% year on year in the third quarter (fixed exchange rate, the growth rate will increase significantly under comparable standards). Both agent and banking insurance channels increased. Among them, the value of new business in the agency channel increased by 10% year on year (fixed exchange rate), which was driven by the increase in the number of active agents and the increase in agent productivity. Furthermore, AIA China recently obtained approval from the regulatory authorities and has begun preparations to establish branches in Anhui Province and Shandong Province, which will continue to enable business expansion in the mainland in the future.
2) Under the joint impetus of local business and MCV business (new business value increased by 28%/20% in the third quarter, respectively), the value of new business in the third quarter increased by 24% (fixed exchange rate). Among them, independent retail financial advisors and economic channels were under pressure, but both agency channels and banking insurance channels achieved excellent growth. The agency channel recorded the highest quarterly new business value from visitors from mainland China in the third quarter after full customs clearance in February 2023.
3) The value of new business in the ASEAN business increased 8% year-on-year in the third quarter (fixed exchange rate). Among them, AIA Singapore and AIA Malaysia both recorded double-digit growth.
The new business value of agents and partner distribution channels in the third quarter was +15%/+16% year-on-year, respectively (fixed exchange rate).
The “Best Agent” is one of the company's core competitive advantages and the most important channel driving the company's value growth. This year, AIA once again became the multinational company with the number of members in the Global Million Roundtable (10 years in a row). In the third quarter, the new business value of the company's “Best Agent” channel increased 15% year-on-year (fixed exchange rate), and the number of newly hired agents recorded a double-digit increase of +9% year-on-year in the number of active agents. At the same time, the company also adopted a diversified distribution strategy to reach more potential customers through partner distribution channels. In the third quarter, the new business value increased 16% year over year (fixed exchange rate) It is mainly driven by banking insurance channels.
Profit prediction and rating: AIA has a broad presence in 18 major markets in the Asia-Pacific region. It has rich international business experience, strong strength, clear channel and customer base strategic positioning. It is rooted in Hong Kong, China, where the life insurance market is mature, and continues to expand the mainland China market, which still has a low penetration rate and huge potential for growth. AIA has ranked first in the number of one million roundtable members in the world for 10 consecutive years, and has established long-term strategic partnerships with many large multinational banks and leading local banks in various markets to reach a wider range of customer groups and achieve complementary advantages. In the future, with the joint promotion of high-quality agents and excellent partner distribution channels, it is expected that new business value will continue to be unleashed. We maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of $4.8/5.6/6.3 billion, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the company's 2024-2026 PEV of 1.27/1.19/1.11, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy reforms fall short of expectations; capital markets fluctuate greatly; premium income falls short of expectations.
