Due to two hurricanes and Boeing strikes, the US added only 12,000 non-farm jobs in October, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with forecasts. At the same time, the hurricanes restricted production in some areas of the US Southeast, causing the largest contraction in the US ISM manufacturing index in 15 months for October. However, it is noteworthy that the prices paid unexpectedly surged back into expansion territory. "New Fed Communications Agency" reported that the October unemployment rate in the US, unrounded, rose from 4.05% to 4.14%, increasing traders' bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November.

In the final employment report before the Fed's November interest rate meeting, unexpectedly weak data almost entirely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with the probability rising from 94.8% yesterday to 99.8%. After the data was released, early trading saw US bond yields, the dollar, and the VIX index plummet. Expectations of a rate cut boosted European and American stock markets, cryptocurrencies, non-dollar currencies, and gold prices surged in the short term. However, the market soon realized that the data was largely influenced by the brief impact of the two hurricanes and the Boeing strikes, leading to no significant Fed rate cut, resulting in a rebound in the dollar and US bond yields, causing other assets to retreat from their highs.

Looking ahead, next week's focus will include the US elections, Fed and Bank of England interest rate decisions, and US ISM services PMI. The market expects both the Fed and the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 basis points next week.

On Friday, November 1st, despite disappointing Apple earnings, the soft October non-farm payrolls boosted expectations of a rate cut, along with positive earnings news from Amazon and Intel, lifting sentiment in the tech sector. The Nasdaq rose by nearly 1.5% and chip stocks rose by nearly 2.2%, ending a two-day decline, but for the week, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 ended their seven-week uptrend. Various sectors saw mixed gains and losses, with Lululemon up 7.8%, Amazon up 6.2%, driving the consumer discretionary sector up 2.4% as the top performer. The China concept index rose 1% before briefly turning negative, ultimately ending slightly higher and posting a weekly gain. The new forces in the car sector reported increased delivery numbers in October, pushing stock prices up collectively. NVIDIA will replace Intel in the Dow, with NVIDIA rising by over 2% in post-market trading, while Intel fell by over 1.7% at one point.

• All three major US indices rose. The S&P 500 index rose by 23.35 points, up 0.41%, closing at 5728.80 points, with a weekly drop of 1.37%. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 288.73 points, up 0.69%, closing at 42052.19 points, with a weekly drop of 0.15%. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose by 144.77 points, up 0.80%, closing at 18239.92 points, with a weekly drop of 1.50%. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.72%, with a weekly drop of 1.57%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, rose by 0.55%, with a weekly drop of 2.03%. The more sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index rose by 0.61%, with a weekly gain of 0.10%. The VIX fear index fell by 5.66%, closing at 21.85, with a weekly gain of 7.48%, having peaked at 23.42 on Thursday.

• Most US Industry ETFs closed higher. Global Aviation ETFs, Biotechnology Index ETFs, and Optional Consumer ETFs all rose nearly 2%, Semiconductor ETFs and Internet Plus-Related Sector Index ETFs rose over 1%, Technology Industry ETFs and Medical Care ETFs rose at least 0.5%. Meanwhile, Utility ETFs fell by over 2%, Banking ETFs, Energy ETFs, and Regional Banks ETFs all fell by at least 0.5%.

• The S&P 500 Index's 11 sector ranges varied. The Optional Consumer sector rose by 2.40%, the Information Technology/Technology sector rose by 0.61%, the Medical Care sector rose by 0.59%, the Industrial sector rose by 0.16%, the Financial sector rose by 0.11%, the Telecom sector fell by 0.07%, the Essential Consumer sector fell by 0.07%, the Materials sector fell by 0.19%, the Energy sector fell by 0.74%, the Real Estate sector fell by 1.09%, and the Utility sector fell by 2.26%.

• In terms of research strategy: Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated that if Trump wins the election, investors should consider exiting the market during the stock market's rise. He believes that a Trump victory, combined with the Republicans gaining a majority in both houses of Congress, could lead to tax cuts and immigration controls, driving inflation and rate hikes, thereby triggering a risk-aversion sentiment in the stock market.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" saw more gains than losses. Apple fell by 1.33%, accumulating a 3.67% decline this week, with a hefty tax payment dragging down profits, and the possibility of a slowdown in revenue for the quarter, as Ming-Chi Kuo believes there is little likelihood of a substantial increase in iPhone shipments due to Apple Intelligence in the short term. Apple agreed to acquire photo editing app developer Pixelmator, subject to regulatory approval. Tesla fell by 0.35%, accumulating a 7.51% decline this week, while Meta, involved in the "metaverse", fell by 0.07%, accumulating a 1.06% decline this week. Nvidia rose 3.4% before closing up 1.99%, accumulating a 4.34% decline this week. Google Class A rose by 0.11%, accumulating a 3.64% increase this week. Amazon rose by 6.19%, accumulating a 5.38% increase this week, with Q3 profits far exceeding expectations, accelerated growth in the cloud, Bezos applying to sell 16.4 million shares of Amazon stock, briefly falling by over 0.4% after hours. Microsoft rose by 0.99%, accumulating a 4.15% decline this week, as Microsoft plans to invest around $10 billion in using CoreWeave's cloud computing data center to support its AI business.

• Of note, US tech giants continue to bet on artificial intelligence, with total capital expenditure for Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google's parent company Alphabet this year likely to exceed $200 billion. Executives of these four companies warned investors this week that they will continue to invest next year, and even increase the scale.

• Chip stocks generally rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.11%, down 4.06% for the week. The industry ETF SOXX rose 1.06%, down 3.92% for the week; NVIDIA's 2x leveraged ETF rose 3.87%, down 8.94% for the week. AMD fell 1.53%, Broadcom fell 0.5%. KLA Corp rose 0.47%, ON Semiconductor rose 0.71%. Arm Holdings rose 0.13%, Qualcomm rose 1.54%. ASML ADR rose 0.32%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose 1.26%. Micron Technology rose 0.08%. Applied Materials rose 0.99%. Intel rose 7.81%, exceeding expectations on Q3 datacenter, AI revenue, and Q4 EPS guidance, but Jefferies Financial lowered Intel's target price from $28 to $25.

• Most AI concept stocks rose. Super Micro Computer fell by 10.51%, down 44.89% for the week, marking the company's worst single weekly performance since its U.S. IPO. The company has revised its loan agreement with Cathay Bank, requiring at least $0.15 billion in unrestricted cash and extending the deadline for the annual financial performance report to December 31. Guo Mingqi stated that Super Micro Computer may undergo a major restructuring at the senior management and board level, or even acquisitions. Dell Technologies, a competitor of Super Micro, rose 5.86%. SoundHound AI, a company NVIDIA holds shares in, rose 2.19%, CrowdStrike rose 2.11%, C3.ai rose 1.62%, Snowflake rose 0.58%, Oracle rose 1.3%, BullFrog AI rose 0.44%, Palantir rose 0.87%, BigBear.ai fell by 0.63%, Serve Robotics fell by 0.89%.

• China concept index slightly rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by approximately 0.1%, up 0.35% for the week. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 1.79%, down 0.56% for the week, previously falling 10.19%, 3.19%, 1.78% in the last three weeks. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 0.12%, up 0.16% for the week, previously falling 8.85%, 6.97%, 1.41% in the last three weeks. The FTSE A50 futures index closed up 0.08% in continuous night trading, at 13,353.000 points.

• Among popular China concept stocks, NIO Inc. initially rose by nearly 2.6% and closed up by 0.2% after rising nearly 5.6%, achieving a historical high in October's delivery volume. Zeekr rose more than 3.3% and closed up by 1.19% after rising by nearly 5.6%, achieving a historical high in October's delivery volume. XPeng rose more than 5.6% and closed up by 2.58%, with record-high deliveries in October. NIO Inc. rose nearly 1.8% but gave back all gains, with deliveries exceeding 200,000 units for six consecutive months at 209,760 new deliveries in October. Daqo New Energy, a solar stock, closed up by 3.94%; Meituan ADR rose by 1.42%; New Oriental rose by 0.14%; Trip.com rose by 1.23%; Fangdd Network rose by 2.8%; Tiger Brokers rose by 1.89%; Pinduoduo fell by 0.02%; JD.com fell by 0.44%; Vipshop fell by 1.73%; NetEase fell by 1.73%; Alibaba fell by 0.41%; Baidu fell by 1.33%; Bilibili fell by 0.99%.

• Other key stocks: (1) Boeing briefly rose by over 3.4%. The company reached consensus on wage increase offers with the Machinists Union, with the Union planning to vote on the new offer next Monday. If approved, the seven-week strike may end. (2) Exxon Mobil initially rose by nearly 2.7% but closed down by 1.6%, exceeding expectations in Q3 revenue and other income. (3) Chevron briefly rose by nearly 4.8%, with adjusted EPS for Q3 better than expected. (4) Novo Nordisk's U.S. stock initially rose by nearly 1% but turned downwards, as clinical trial results suggest that the weight-loss drug Wegovy helps improve liver diseases associated with obesity. (5) Energy company Dominion discussed SMR agreements on an analyst conference call, causing nuclear power concept stocks to rise and then fall back. Uranium Energy Corp rose by over 14% but closed up by 5.51% after rising by 10.1%. (6) Profit-taking from the "Trump trade," the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) fell by 13.53%.

European stocks closed up on Friday, ending a three-day decline, rising by about 1%, but still marking the second consecutive week of declines with most weeks falling by over 1%:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 1.09%, down 1.52% for the week. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 1.04%, down 1.32% for the week. The FTSE All-World 300 index closed up 1.05%, down 1.47% for the week.

• All sectors rose, with the banking sector leading the gains with a 1.68% increase. Danish shipping giant Maersk rose by over 5%, while Barclays and JPMorgan both raised the stock's target price.

• Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.93%, down 1.07% this week. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.80%, down 1.18% this week. The Netherlands' AEX index closed up 1.08%, down 1.69% this week. Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 1.15%, down 0.29% this week. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.83%, down 0.87% this week. Spain's IBEX 35 index closed up 1.46%, up 0.26% this week.

US bond yields rebounded after hitting daily lows, with the 2-year US bond yield plummeting 15 basis points due to the non-farm payroll data release, but then rising nearly 4 basis points by the closing bell. The 10-year US bond yield ultimately rose by over 9 basis points. Euro-American bond yields saw double-digit jumps throughout the week, with the 2-year UK bond yield rising by over 26 basis points due to inflation risks from the UK's 'Autumn Budget Report.'

• US Bonds: At the end of the session, the US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose by 9.32 basis points to 4.3776%, approaching the peak of 4.4415% on July 3. Around 20:30 Beijing time after the US non-farm payroll report was released from around 4.32%, it quickly plunged to a daily low of 4.2205%, then rebounded, with a weekly increase of 13.56 basis points. The 2-year US bond yield rose by 3.93 basis points to 4.2095%, reaching 4.2116% at 20:22 (less than 10 minutes from the release of the non-farm payroll report), then plunged to a daily low of 4.0628% at 20:39, and gradually rebounded, with a weekly increase of 10.29 basis points.

• Eurozone Bonds: At the end of the session, the 10-year German bond yield rose by 1.6 basis points to 2.405%, with a weekly increase of 11.4 basis points. The 2-year German bond yield fell by 3.1 basis points, with a weekly increase of 13.3 basis points. The 10-year UK bond yield fell by 0.1 basis points to 4.445%, with a weekly increase of 21.2 basis points. The 2-year UK bond yield fell by 0.7 basis points, with a weekly increase of 26.5 basis points. 10-year French bond yield, 10-year Italian bond yield.

The US dollar index V-shaped reversal on 'non-farm day,' rising back above 104 and erasing the week's decline. After the yen rose above 152 and then fell during US stock market trading, it barely held above 153, with a drop of over 0.4% this week. The offshore renminbi fell by 138 points towards the end, barely holding at 7.14, with a slight decrease for the week. The Swiss franc fell to an eleven-week low as speculation of a Swiss rate cut heats up. The British pound was the only non-US currency to gain, breaking its downtrend from the previous two days of sell-off, but marking the fifth consecutive week of decline, the longest in six years. Bitcoin futures pierced above $74,000 this week but pulled back for two consecutive days, with spot prices pressing down towards $69,000.

• USD: The US Dollar Index DXY rose 0.33% at the end of the day, closing at 104.317 points. After the release of the US non-farm payroll report at 20:30 Beijing time, it plunged, hitting a low of 103.679 points since October 21, then recovered gradually and rose, with a weekly gain of 0.06%. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.40%, closing at 1263.87 points. At 20:40, it hit a daily low of 1256.11 points, then rebounded, with a weekly gain of 0.19%.

• Non-USD currencies: The Euro fell 0.46% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.0834, with a weekly gain of 0.36%. It continued to fluctuate upward during the week and briefly rose to 1.0905 after the non-farm payroll report; the British Pound rose 0.16% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.2920, with a weekly decline of 0.31%; the US Dollar rose 0.74% against the Swiss Franc, closing at 0.8698, with a weekly gain of 0.37%. Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell 0.34% against the US Dollar, with a weekly decline of 0.66%; the New Zealand Dollar fell 0.23%, with a weekly decline of 0.22%; the US Dollar rose 0.13% against the Canadian Dollar to a two-year high, with a weekly gain of 0.44%. The Swedish Krona fell 0.90% against the US Dollar, with a weekly decline of 1.13%, and the Norwegian Krone fell 0.60%, with a weekly decline of 0.77%.

• JPY: The Japanese Yen fell 0.62% against the US Dollar at the end of the day, closing at 152.98 yen, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, but some analysts believe there is an increased possibility of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

• Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH): The offshore Chinese Yuan fell by 138 points against the US Dollar at the end of the day, closing at 7.1354 yuan. It traded overall between 7.1146-7.1396 yuan during the day, surging significantly after the release of the US non-farm payroll report.

• Cryptocurrencies: The largest market capitalization leader Bitcoin futures fell 1.20% at the end of the day, closing at $69,620.00. At 22:30 Beijing time (after the US non-farm payroll report was released), it hit a daily high, with a weekly gain of 1.36%. It hit an intraday high of $74,485.00 on October 29. The second largest Ethereum futures rose 0.46%, closing at $2,538.00. After the non-farm payroll report was released, it also hit a daily high, with a weekly gain of 1.64%. It also hit an intraday high of $2,752.00 on October 30.

Due to reports that Iran plans to retaliate against Israel within Iraq, coupled with OPEC+ considering delaying the December production increase plan, several countries including Iraq have pledged to reduce production, supporting a 3% rise in oil prices on 'Non-Farm Day'. At one point, the price of U.S. oil reached $71, Brent oil approached $75, but oil prices fell more than 3% for the whole week. UK natural gas fell more than 4.7% on Friday, while European benchmark Dutch natural gas fell more than 11% throughout the week.

• US oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed up $0.23, up more than 0.33%, at $69.49 per barrel. US oil maintained an upward trend throughout the day, with European stocks rising nearly 3.2% in early trading to break through $71.40, then giving up most of the gains, with a weekly decline of 3.2%.

• Brent oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed up $0.29, up nearly 0.40%, at $73.10 per barrel. Brent oil maintained an upward trend throughout the day, with European stocks rising over 2.9% in early trading to approach $75, then giving up most gains, with a weekly decline of 3.9%.

• On the news front, the Iraqi government confirmed it would cut oil production to 3.3 million barrels per day to fulfill its commitments to the OPEC+ production cut agreement. Russia and Kazakhstan emphasized the importance of OPEC+ in stabilizing the oil market, confirming they will comply with OPEC+'s oil production reduction agreement. U.S. CFTC data shows that in the week of October 29, WTI crude oil bullish sentiment hit a nine-month low.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX December natural gas futures fell 1.62% to $2.6630 per million British thermal units. The TTF Dutch natural gas futures, a European benchmark, rose by 0.65% to 38.650 euros per megawatt-hour, down 11.25% for the week. ICE UK natural gas futures fell by 4.75% to 98.450 pence per calorie, accumulating a 11.53% decline for the week.

Spot gold fell for the second consecutive day and recorded the largest weekly decline since August. Reports of Iran retaliating against Israel, coupled with weak non-farm data, added to rate cut expectations, causing spot gold to rise nearly 0.7%. Subsequently, investors took profit, and the USD and US bond yields rebounded from daily lows, exerting pressure on precious metals. Gold prices rose but then fell back, reaching a low decline of nearly 0.4%.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures closed slightly down 0.16% at $2744.90 per ounce, accumulating a 0.36% decline for the week. On October 30th, it hit a historical new high of $2801.80, but fell after the release of October non-farm payroll data. Spot gold initially surged nearly 0.7% to break above $2760, then sharply reversed and erased all gains after midday, dropping by almost 0.4% to below $2730.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures closed down 0.81% at $32.535 per ounce, marking a 3.93% decline for the week. It had risen to $34.725 on October 29th. Following the release of non-farm data before the US market opened, spot silver surged over 1.4%, rising above $33.10, but later dropped by over 1% to below $32.30 after midday.

• On the news front, according to the US CFTC data for the week of October 29th, bullish sentiment towards gold cooled, with net shorts in palladium hitting a 22-month low, while platinum bullish sentiment reached a five-year high. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh believes that if Harris wins, gold prices may briefly decline but will later rebound. A weaker USD may enhance the purchasing power of countries like China and India, while slowing economic growth could prompt the US to accelerate rate cuts, thus boosting gold prices.

• London Industrial Metals: LME copper closed up $64, a rise exceeding 0.67%, at $9570 per ton, with a weekly decline of over 0.33%. COMEX copper futures fell by 0.44%, at $4.3450 per pound, accumulating a 0.50% decline for the week. LME aluminum closed down $18 at $2600 per ton, marking a weekly decline of over 2.91%. LME zinc closed up $40, a 1.32% rise, at $3070 per ton, despite a weekly decline of 1.03%. LME lead closed up $34, a rise of over 1.68%, at $2054 per ton. LME nickel closed up $226, a rise of about 1.44%, at $15944 per ton, with a weekly decline of about 1.38%. LME tin closed up $511, a rise of about 1.64%, at $31724 per ton, accumulating a weekly rise of over 1.27%. LME cobalt remained unchanged at $24300 per ton.

Editor/rice