投资建议：考虑到周边游承压及新增项目爬坡影响，下调 2024-2026年预测EPS 分别为0.27（-29%）/0.33（-25%）/0.39（-17%）元，考虑到2025 年行业平均的22xPE，考虑到酒店业务有望加速爬坡，给予2025 年31xPE，上调目标价为11.95 元（+9%），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Performance is slightly lower than expected. Under the trend of affordable travel, passenger flow in leisure and scenic spots is under pressure, and the operation of the two towns still needs to be repaired.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering the pressure on surrounding tourism and the impact of new projects, the 2024-2026 forecast EPS was lowered to 0.27 (-29%) /0.33 (-25%) /0.39 (-17%) yuan, respectively. Considering the 2025 industry average of 22xPE, and considering that the hotel business is expected to accelerate its climb, 31 x PE in 2025 will be given, and the target price will be raised to 11.95 yuan (+9%) to maintain the increase rating.
Performance summary: 24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 7.048 billion yuan/ +4.65%, gross profit of 1.683 billion yuan/ -3.66%, mother profit 0.153 billion yuan/ -25.77%, deducted from non-return mother 0.153 billion yuan/ -21.1%; single Q3 achieved revenue of 2.697 billion yuan/ +5.51%, gross profit of 0.634 billion yuan/ -9.18%, gross profit ratio of 23.51% /-3.8pct, Tax and additional/sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were -0.07/-0.03/-0.02/-0.7pct year-on-year, with a year-on-year expense ratio of -1.74%; profit to mother 0.08 billion yuan/ -19.29%, profit margin 2.98%/-0.92pct; after deducting non-return of 0.079 billion yuan/ -15.56%, profit margin 2.92%/-0.73pct.
Performance is slightly lower than expected, and passenger flow is under pressure under the trend of affordable travel. 24Q1-3 Wuzhen received 5.99 million/ -2.7% of visitors, including Dongzha 1.7 million/ -7.2% and Xizha 4.3 million/ +0%, achieving revenue of 1.325 billion yuan/ -4.36%, customer unit price 221 yuan/ -1.73%, net profit 0.265 billion yuan/ -20.32%, net profit of 20% /-4.01pct; Gubei Water Town achieved operation Revenue was 0.429 billion yuan/ -21.38%, customer unit price was 428 yuan/ -12.11%; China Youth Expo Union achieved revenue of 1.323 billion yuan/ -5.46%, net profit of 0.024 billion yuan, net profit of 2%; Shanshui Hotel's revenue was 0.234 billion yuan/ -26.61%, and net profit was basically the same; Chuange Technology's revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 0.039 billion yuan, all of which were basically flat year-on-year.
Operations in both towns have yet to be repaired. 24Q3 Wuzhen received 2.1659 millions/ -17.02%, of which Dongzha 0.5901 million/ -21.35%, Xizha 1.5758 million/ -13.74%, achieved revenue of 0.466 billion yuan/ -14.48%, customer unit price 215 yuan/ +3.06%, net profit 0.112 billion yuan/ -20.32%, net profit of 24.03% /-1.98pct; Gubei Water Town received visitors 0.4021 million people/ -9.09%, revenue 0.154 billion yuan/ -20.77%, customer unit price 383 yuan/ -12.84%. The revenue and profit side of the core two town projects still need to narrow.
Risk Warning: Demand is weak, project approval falls short of expectations, and travel costs continue to rise
