公司毛利率提升，推动 2024 年前三季度利润总额增长亮眼，动漫IP 布局稳步推进，维持“增持”评级。考虑到一般图书市场规模在今年前三季度增速有所放缓，我们预计2024-2026 年公司EPS 预测值分别为0.82/0.97/1.06 元，与上次预测（0.84/1.01/1.11 元）相比略有下调，维持目标价33.19 元，相对2024 年40.4xPE，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's net profit after deducting earnings for the third quarter increased by 48.98% year on year, improving profits; the company's IP strategy continues to advance, keeping an eye on subsequent developments.
Key points of investment:
The company's gross margin increased, driving a remarkable increase in total profit in the first three quarters of 2024. The animation IP layout progressed steadily and maintained the “gain” rating. Considering that the growth rate of the general book market slowed in the first three quarters of this year, we expect the company's EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to be 0.82/0.97/1.06 yuan, a slight decrease from the previous forecast (0.84/1.01/1.11 yuan), and maintain the target price of 33.19 yuan, compared to 40.4xPE in 2024, maintaining an “gain” rating.
On October 29, 2024, CITIC Publishing released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the third quarter of 2024, the company's revenue was 0.401 billion yuan, down 2.91% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.037 billion yuan, up 5.71% year on year, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.436 billion yuan, up 48.98% year on year. As of the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.20%; net profit attributable to mother/withheld from mother was 0.13/0.135 billion yuan, respectively, +3.05%/+13.42% year-on-year.
The increase in gross margin led to an improvement in profit conditions. 2024Q3's revenue declined slightly year on year, but net profit without return to mother increased by 48.98% year on year, which was a significant increase. Looking at the split, the 2024Q3 gross profit was 0.161 billion yuan, up 7.68% year on year. As gross margin increased 3.97 pcts year over year to 40.26%, gross margin increased significantly. The year-on-year increase in return to parent was small, mainly due to a decrease of 9.6863 million yuan in illiquid asset disposal.
Continuing to promote the animation IP layout, the company opened its first offline anime-themed store. In the first half of 2024, the company set up an animation division to accelerate the animation cultural and creative strategy, create four book product lines for introduction, national innovation, youth literature, and independent planning, strengthen copyright reserves and vertical channel construction; explore IP derivative operations around IP logic, and cooperate in setting up anime-themed spaces. On August 28, CITIC Publishing opened a new store in Shanghai. The first floor is a bookstore and exhibition space, and the second floor is a “millet shop” (an IP derivative store for anime, etc.), which includes a restaurant, to create a one-stop exclusive comprehensive experience space for low-level users. The store can buy anime IP accessories, domestic and foreign ACG books, and users can also eat and socialize at IP-themed restaurants.
Risk warning: The decline in the birth population affects demand for teaching aids. Demand for two-dimensional cultural and creative products falls short of expectations, and demand for books is shrinking.
